MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Sentiment indicators sweep through Germany, France and Italy

early Thursday morning. Starting in Germany is the Gfk consumer climate at

0600GMT. The previous index reading was 10.7.

     Shortly after is France with their consumer sentiment reading at 0645GMT.

The previous index reading was 97.0.

     The ISAT consumer and business confidence is next at 0800GMT. The previous

readings were 116.2 and 105.4 respectively.

     Closing the morning is the ECB monetary policy decision at 1145GMT. The

current deposit facility rate of -0.40 is not unexpected to change.

     The level of initial jobless claims in the US (1230GMT) is expected to rise

by 9,000 to 216,000 in the July 21 week after an 8,000 decline to 207,000 in the

previous week, the lowest level since 1969. Summer retooling shutdowns typically

make July claims data less reliable. The four-week moving average would fall by

3,000 in the coming week as the 228,000 level in the June 23 week drops out of

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no

revisions.

     Seasonal adjustment factors expect unadjusted claims to decline further in

the July 21 week after a decrease of 33,522 in the previous week that roughly

offset the July 7 week's gain. The expectation of another large unadjusted

decline in claims stems from the traditional timing of auto plant shutdowns for

retooling. As a result, analysts often dismiss large movements in July.

Unadjusted claims fell by 37,308, in the comparable week a year ago, a smaller

decline than seasonal factors had expected, so adjusted claims rose by 3,000

that week.

     Durable goods orders, also in the US and at 1230GMT, are expected to surge

by 3.2% in June after a 0.4% decline in May. Boeing reported 233 orders in June,

up sharply from 43 orders in May, so aircraft orders are likely to surge in the

June report. Motor vehicles orders plunged in May, so a rebound is likely. New

orders excluding transportation are expected to rise 0.3% after a flat reading

in the previous month.

     Three out of the four 1230GMT releases is payroll employment in Canada.

Previously average weekly earnings were 2.5% on a y/y basis and payroll

employment was previously -3.7 units.

     The final 1230GMT calendar entry is the ECB press conference following the

interest rate decision in Frankfurt.

     The penultimate piece of data is in Japan at 2330GMT with Tokyo's CPI data.

The core central Tokyo CPI y/y is expected to remain unchanged at 0.7%.

     Closing in Australia is the quarterly producer price index at 0130GMT. The

prior PPI y/y was 1.7%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com