MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday's calendar sees a busy morning session, but it runs

out of steam fairly quickly in the afternoon. 

     The session starts at 0730GMT, when the SNB's interest rate decision is

announced. The current interest rate is -0.75% and no change is expected. 

     Up next at 0800GMT is the Norges Bank with their policy decision. After a

prior interest rate of 0.50, the previous two meetings' guidance pointed towards

a hike in September with markets pricing such an outcome in. 

     Retail sales in the UK had a blistering performance in the summer months.

However, it was flattered by one off events such as the World Cup, Royal Wedding

and the hot weather and with these events not apparent in August, there could be

a correction. The previous m/m reading of 0.7% and 0.9% excluding fuel in July

is expected to decline in August by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. The release is

at 0830GMT. 

     BBK Board member Claudia Buch is speaking in Warsaw at 0900GMT, Poland.

     That wraps up the morning and moves us onto the US, when the first piece of

data is the level of initial jobless claims (1230GMT) which is expected to rise

by 3,000 to a still-low 207,000 level in the September 15 employment survey week

after a decrease to 204,000 in the previous week, a 49-year low. Claims were at

a level of 210,000 in the August 18 employment survey week. The four-week moving

average would fall by 750 in the coming week as that 210,000 level rolls out of

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no

revisions. There will be no impact from Hurricane Florence in this week's data,

but it may begin to show up in the following week's data.

     The pace of existing home sales is next in the US at 1400GMT. Existing home

sales is expected to tick up very slightly to a 5.36 million annual rate in

August after slipping further to a 5.34 million rate in July. Pending home sales

fell by 0.7% in July, a negative sign for existing home sales. The supply of

homes for sale remains much too low to match demand and bring down prices.

     The index of leading indicators in the US is also at 1400GMT and forecasted

to rise by 0.5% in August. Positive contributions are expected from gains in

stock prices, the ISM new orders index, and consumer expectations, and slightly

lower initial jobless claims. A shorter factory workweek could provide some

offset.

     In the Euro Area, the flash consumer confidence reading for September is at

1400GMT. The reading was previously -1.9 and is expected to drop to -2.

     ECB Governing council member Jens Weidmann is speaking in Freiburg, Germany

at 1515GMT. 

     At 1720GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet IS speaking in New York.

     Finishing off the calendar at 2330GMT is Japan with their core national CPI

y/y reading for August. The previous July reading was 0.8% and is expected to

tick up to 0.9% for August. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com