MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - The three key releases markets will be focused on for Friday

all come from the States, with the nonfarm payrolls and international trade data

at 1230GMT and US consumer credit at 1400GMT

     Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 182,000 in September after a

stronger-than-expected 201,000 rise in August. The effects of Hurricane Florence

may be limited because it occurred very late in the survey week. The

unemployment rate is expected to slip to 3.8% after staying at 3.9% in August

after rounding. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% after solid gains

in the previous two months, but a 0.5% gain in September 2017 due the hurricanes

that month should reduce the year/year rate this year. The average workweek is

expected to hold steady for another month at 34.5 hours.

     Over the last 10 years of forecasts for September payrolls, there were

seven misses to the high side that averaged 64,430 and three misses to the low

side that average 20,000. A large overestimate in September 2017 was due to the

impact of the hurricanes. The data suggest that an overestimate is likely, even

if the hurricane impact from Florence is minimal.

     The international trade gap is expected to widen to $52.2 billion in August

from $50.1 billion in July. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap

widened further to $75.8 billion, as exports fell and imports rose.

     Consumer credit is expected to rise by $14.2 billion in August after a

solid $16.6 billion gain in July. Retail sales were up only 0.1% in August

overall and 0.3% excluding a 0.8% decline in motor vehicle sales, suggesting

consumer credit growth slowed.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com