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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - The three key releases markets will be focused on for Friday
all come from the States, with the nonfarm payrolls and international trade data
at 1230GMT and US consumer credit at 1400GMT
     Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 182,000 in September after a
stronger-than-expected 201,000 rise in August. The effects of Hurricane Florence
may be limited because it occurred very late in the survey week. The
unemployment rate is expected to slip to 3.8% after staying at 3.9% in August
after rounding. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% after solid gains
in the previous two months, but a 0.5% gain in September 2017 due the hurricanes
that month should reduce the year/year rate this year. The average workweek is
expected to hold steady for another month at 34.5 hours.
     Over the last 10 years of forecasts for September payrolls, there were
seven misses to the high side that averaged 64,430 and three misses to the low
side that average 20,000. A large overestimate in September 2017 was due to the
impact of the hurricanes. The data suggest that an overestimate is likely, even
if the hurricane impact from Florence is minimal.
     The international trade gap is expected to widen to $52.2 billion in August
from $50.1 billion in July. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap
widened further to $75.8 billion, as exports fell and imports rose.
     Consumer credit is expected to rise by $14.2 billion in August after a
solid $16.6 billion gain in July. Retail sales were up only 0.1% in August
overall and 0.3% excluding a 0.8% decline in motor vehicle sales, suggesting
consumer credit growth slowed.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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