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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - The three data releases worth attention on Thursday are
final September inflation numbers from France, Spain and the US.
     First up, at 0530GMT, Bank of Japan Policy Board member Makoto Sakurai
speaks in Japan, with markets looking for any sign of comment as 10-year JGBs
trade towards the upper end of the central bank's target range.
     Inflation in France (due at 0645GMT) had a flash reading of 2.5% y/y. In
Spain, the flash was slightly lower at 2.2% Y/Y. Spain's final reading is
released at 0700GMT.
     At 1230GMT, US CPI will be released and is expected to post another 0.2%
gain, same as in August. AAA reported a small decline in mid-month prices from
August, which could reduce seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices after a sharp
gain in the previous month. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following an
softer-than-expected 0.1% increase in August.
     Over the last 20 September releases, there have been five overestimates
(identified as negatives in the graph below) and six underestimates, with
correct estimates in the other nine years, a testament to the accuracy of
forecasts for this data. There was a 0.07 percentage point average miss over the
last 20 years, extremely small due to the large number of accurate estimates.
Over the last 10 years, there were three overestimates, two underestimates, and
five correct estimates (including four of the last five years), so the
likelihood of correct estimate is high.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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