MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - The three data releases worth attention on Thursday are

final September inflation numbers from France, Spain and the US.

     First up, at 0530GMT, Bank of Japan Policy Board member Makoto Sakurai

speaks in Japan, with markets looking for any sign of comment as 10-year JGBs

trade towards the upper end of the central bank's target range.

     Inflation in France (due at 0645GMT) had a flash reading of 2.5% y/y. In

Spain, the flash was slightly lower at 2.2% Y/Y. Spain's final reading is

released at 0700GMT.

     At 1230GMT, US CPI will be released and is expected to post another 0.2%

gain, same as in August. AAA reported a small decline in mid-month prices from

August, which could reduce seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices after a sharp

gain in the previous month. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following an

softer-than-expected 0.1% increase in August.

     Over the last 20 September releases, there have been five overestimates

(identified as negatives in the graph below) and six underestimates, with

correct estimates in the other nine years, a testament to the accuracy of

forecasts for this data. There was a 0.07 percentage point average miss over the

last 20 years, extremely small due to the large number of accurate estimates.

Over the last 10 years, there were three overestimates, two underestimates, and

five correct estimates (including four of the last five years), so the

likelihood of correct estimate is high.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com