MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - A slower but important calendar sets the agenda for

Thursday. 

     Starting at 0600GMT is Germany's wholesale prices. Previously, m/m and y/y

prices were 0.5% and 3.4% respectively. 

     Up next at 0800GMT is the Norges Bank policy decision. As highlighted by

MNI analysis, the policy rate is not expected to change in August with the

previous minutes highlighting September as the month to watch out for. 

     After a weak end to Q2, UK release their July retail sales at 0830GMT.

Previous m/m growth in retail sales was -0.5% and the MNI median for the month

of July is flat. Excluding fuels, retail sales was previously -0.6% m/m, with

the MNI median for the month of July at -0.1%. 

     Half an hour later at 0900GMT is the trade balance in the Euro Area at

0900GMT. The previous trade balance was a surplus of EUR16.9 bn. 

     The US as usual takeover in the afternoon at 1230GMT, with initial jobless

claims, housing starts, The Philadelphia Fed index and the NY Fed Business

Leaders survey. 

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 1,000 to 214,000

in the August 11 week after a decrease of 6,000 to 213,000 in the previous week.

The four-week moving average would rise by 1,500 in the coming week as the

decades-low 208,000 level in the July 14 week rolls out of the calculation,

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. Still, the

average would be extremely low.

     The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is expected to rebound to a

1.256 million annual rate in July after falling sharply in June. The NAHB index

held steady at 68 in July. As inventories remain tight, builders will likely

find it advantageous to boost output. The pace of building permits is expected

to tick up only slightly to a 1.295 million rate from the revised 1.292 million

rate in June.

     The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a reading of 22.0 in

August after rebounding to 25.7 in July.

     The NY Fed Business Leaders survey previously had an index reading of 14.8.

     Finishing up in Australia at 2330GMT is the RBA Governor Philip Lowe

appearing before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics

in Canberra.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com