MNI Global Morning Briefing: Focus on EZ ESI

There are several key data releases on the cards Thursday. The main events to look out for include the publication of French consumer confidence at 0745GMT, followed by the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator at 1000GMT. The highlights in the US are the publication of weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders, both released at 1330GMT.

French consumer confidence seen unchanged

Consumer sentiment in France dropped to 92 in January, following December's sharp 6-point increase to 95. In February, markets are looking for consumer confidence to remain at January's level of 92. January's decline was led by a deterioration in household's assessment of their financial situation and the standard of living in the next 12 months. Moreover, the intentions to make major purchases fell to a two-month low and savings intentions increased. Restrictions remain tight in France as the infection rate remains high and there is a national curfew which weighs on consumer confidence.

EZ ESI forecast to tick up

The European Commission's economic sentiment indicator is expected to edge slightly higher in February to 92.0, up 0.5pt. The indicator fluctuates in recent months depending on the state of the pandemic and subsequent restrictions and it remains well below the pre-crisis level. Services and retail trade sentiment remain particularly low as restrictions continue to weigh on business activity. On the other hand, manufacturing confidence improved significantly in January, rising to the highest level since August 2019. In February markets look for another improvement to -5.3 which would be the highest reading since May 2019. Consumer confidence rose to -14.8 according to the flash estimate, but remains well below the pre-pandemic level. Other survey evidence is in line with market forecasts. The EZ flash composite PMI increased to a two-month high in February, driven mainly by the manufacturing sector, while the service continued to struggle.

Source: European Commission services

US weekly jobless claims expected to slow

Initial unemployment insurance claims filed through February 20 should fall to 750,000, according to Bloomberg, an improvement over the previous week's 861,000 that was the highest level in a month.

US durable goods orders seen rising

New orders of U.S. durable goods are expected to have surged in January, with Bloomberg expecting an increase of 1.2%. Excluding transportation, new orders are forecast to be up 0.7%. The goods-producing sector has been a bright spot through the Covid pandemic, and orders of durable goods should see continued strength in the coming months.

Thursday throws up a busy schedule in terms of events. The main speaker to look out for include ECB's Philip Lane and Louis de Guindos, Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic, St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard, Fed's Randal Quarles and New York Fed's John Williams.