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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - BoJ, US GDP/PCE Headline

TUESDAY - APRIL FLASH PMIs

Next week sees the release of April flash PMIs from across the globe. Focusing on the Eurozone, the main focus will be on whether the composite PMI can print in expansionary territory, after inching above 50 in the March round as flash estimates were revised upwards in the final report. Divergence between core and periphery countries will continue to be eyed, after Spain and Italy handily outperformed French and German counterparts in March.

TUESDAY - NBH DECISION

The National Bank of Hungary is widely expected to moderate the pace of rate cuts from 75bps to 50bps when they meet on Tuesday. A substantial deterioration in global risk sentiment since the previous rate-setting meeting and associated HUF weakness justifies the expected slowdown in pace.

WEDNESDAY - BI DECISION

The consensus at this stage looks for no change in next week's Bank Indonesia meeting. This is also our bias, although some sell-side analysts have floated the possibility of a rate hike in order to boost the IDR outlook. USD/IDR has rallied to fresh highs back to early 2020 in recent weeks. Renewed push back on the timing of Fed rate cuts and broader market risk aversion around Middle East tensions have been clear headwinds. At this we suspect the BI will rely on other tools to curb FX weakness, and is likely to only revert to tighter policy if the Fed resumes its tightening cycle.

THURSDAY - CBRT DECISION

The Central Bank of Turkey is expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50% after surprising markets with an above-consensus hike in March. Nevertheless, Governor Karahan has attempted to reassure markets the central bank is serious about achieving price stability, promising to do “whatever it takes” to curb inflation.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY - US Q1 GDP ESTIMATE AND MARCH PCE

Thursday sees the advance release for Q1 national accounts, including a first look at real GDP growth after trackers have accelerated in recent weeks on a string of solid releases. Analyst consensus sees a 2.5% annualized increase whilst the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, which has beaten analysts for a number of quarters now, sees 2.9%. It follows a particularly strong 2H23 (4.9% Q3 and 3.4% Q4) aided by booming productivity growth, with continued focus on the extent to which supply side improvements have helped at least partly mitigate strong demand in terms of inflationary pressure. The release will also include the Q1 estimate for core PCE inflation, with the usual implications for the March reading released on Friday. However, the Fed’s Powell has already indicated it should track 2.8% Y/Y in March which should limit the potential for surprises barring particularly large monthly revisions that alter the very latest momentum.

FRIDAY - BOJ DECISION

No policy adjustment is anticipated at the upcoming two-day meeting ending on April 26, following last month's decision to raise rates for the first time since 2007. However, a growing number of economists foresee the possibility of the BoJ implementing another rate hike in October, with many highlighting July as a potential earlier timeframe. The prospect of a weaker yen is cited among the factors that could accelerate this timeline. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that the BoJ will revise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 2.6% and project a 2% price growth for the fiscal year commencing in April 2026. This adjustment reflects optimism regarding wage trends.

FRIDAY - CBR DECISION

No change to the Central Bank of Russia’s key rate of 16% is expected, however, some analysts expect officials to provide firmer guidance on when the first rate cut will be made.

DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
22/04/20242301/0001*UKRightmove House Prices Index
22/04/20241000/1100**UKCBI Industrial Trends
22/04/20241230/0830*CAIndustrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
22/04/20241400/1600**EUConsumer Confidence Indicator (p)
22/04/20241430/1030CABOC market participants survey
22/04/20241530/1730EUECB's Lagarde Lecture at Yale
22/04/20241530/1130*USUS Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
22/04/20241530/1130*USUS Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
23/04/20242300/0900***AUJudo Bank Flash Australia PMI
23/04/20240030/0930**JPJibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
23/04/20240600/0700***UKPublic Sector Finances
23/04/20240715/0915**FRS&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/04/20240715/0915**FRS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/04/20240730/0930**DES&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/04/20240730/0930**DES&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/04/20240800/1000**EUS&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/04/20240800/1000**EUS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/04/20240800/1000**EUS&P Global Composite PMI (p)
23/04/20240800/0900UKBOE's Haskel Panelist at Econometric Seminar
23/04/20240830/0930***UKS&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
23/04/20240830/0930***UKS&P Global Services PMI flash
23/04/20240830/0930***UKS&P Global Composite PMI flash
23/04/20241115/1215UKBOE's Pill Speech at University of Chicago
23/04/20241230/0830**USPhiladelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
23/04/20241255/0855**USRedbook Retail Sales Index
23/04/20241345/0945***USS&P Global Manufacturing Index (flash)
23/04/20241345/0945***USS&P Global Services Index (flash)
23/04/20241400/1000***USNew Home Sales
23/04/20241400/1000**USRichmond Fed Survey
23/04/20241530/1130*USUS Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
23/04/20241700/1300*USUS Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
24/04/20242301/0001*UKXpertHR pay deals for whole economy
24/04/20240130/1130***AUCPI Inflation Monthly
24/04/20240130/1130***AUCPI inflation
24/04/20240600/0800**SEUnemployment
24/04/20240600/1400**CNMNI China Liquidity Index (CLI)
24/04/20240735/0935EUECB's Cipollone speech at ECB retail payments conference
24/04/20240800/1000**ITISTAT Business Confidence
24/04/20240800/1000**ITISTAT Consumer Confidence
24/04/20240800/1000***DEIFO Business Climate Index
24/04/20240910/1110EUECB's Cipollone panel at ECB Retail Payments Conference
24/04/20241100/0700**USMBA Weekly Applications Index
24/04/20241230/0830**CARetail Trade
24/04/20241230/0830**USDurable Goods New Orders
24/04/20241300/1500**BEBNB Business Sentiment
24/04/20241400/1600EUECB's Schnabel remarks at '"Frankfurt liest ein Buch"
24/04/20241430/1030**USDOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
24/04/20241530/1130**USUS Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
24/04/20241700/1300*USUS Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
24/04/20241730/1330CABOC Minutes (Summary of Deliberations)
25/04/20240600/0800*DEGFK Consumer Climate
25/04/20240600/0800**SEPPI
25/04/20240645/0845**FRManufacturing Sentiment
25/04/20240700/0900**ESPPI
25/04/20240700/0900**SEEconomic Tendency Indicator
25/04/20240700/0900EUECB's Schnabel Speech for 'ChaMP'
25/04/20241000/1100**UKCBI Distributive Trades
25/04/20241100/0700***TRTurkey Benchmark Rate
25/04/20241230/0830***USJobless Claims
25/04/20241230/0830**USWASDE Weekly Import/Export
25/04/20241230/0830***USGDP
25/04/20241230/0830*CAPayroll employment
25/04/20241230/0830**USAdvance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
25/04/20241400/1000**USNAR Pending Home Sales
25/04/20241430/1030**USNatural Gas Stocks
25/04/20241500/1100**USKansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
25/04/20241700/1300**USUS Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
26/04/20242301/0001**UKGfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
26/04/20242330/0830**JPTokyo CPI
26/04/20240130/1130**AUTrade price indexes
26/04/20240200/1100***JPBOJ Policy Rate Announcement
26/04/20240645/0845**FRConsumer Sentiment
26/04/20240800/1000**EUM3
26/04/20240800/1000**EUECB Consumer Expectations Survey
26/04/20240800/1000EUECB's De Guindos at Academia Europea Leadership
26/04/20241230/0830**USPersonal Income and Consumption
26/04/20241400/1000**USU. Mich. Survey of Consumers
26/04/20241500/1100CAFinance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
26/04/20241700/1300**USBaker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly

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