Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TUESDAY - APRIL FLASH PMIs
Next week sees the release of April flash PMIs from across the globe. Focusing on the Eurozone, the main focus will be on whether the composite PMI can print in expansionary territory, after inching above 50 in the March round as flash estimates were revised upwards in the final report. Divergence between core and periphery countries will continue to be eyed, after Spain and Italy handily outperformed French and German counterparts in March.
TUESDAY - NBH DECISION
The National Bank of Hungary is widely expected to moderate the pace of rate cuts from 75bps to 50bps when they meet on Tuesday. A substantial deterioration in global risk sentiment since the previous rate-setting meeting and associated HUF weakness justifies the expected slowdown in pace.
WEDNESDAY - BI DECISION
The consensus at this stage looks for no change in next week's Bank Indonesia meeting. This is also our bias, although some sell-side analysts have floated the possibility of a rate hike in order to boost the IDR outlook. USD/IDR has rallied to fresh highs back to early 2020 in recent weeks. Renewed push back on the timing of Fed rate cuts and broader market risk aversion around Middle East tensions have been clear headwinds. At this we suspect the BI will rely on other tools to curb FX weakness, and is likely to only revert to tighter policy if the Fed resumes its tightening cycle.
THURSDAY - CBRT DECISION
The Central Bank of Turkey is expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50% after surprising markets with an above-consensus hike in March. Nevertheless, Governor Karahan has attempted to reassure markets the central bank is serious about achieving price stability, promising to do “whatever it takes” to curb inflation.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY - US Q1 GDP ESTIMATE AND MARCH PCE
Thursday sees the advance release for Q1 national accounts, including a first look at real GDP growth after trackers have accelerated in recent weeks on a string of solid releases. Analyst consensus sees a 2.5% annualized increase whilst the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, which has beaten analysts for a number of quarters now, sees 2.9%. It follows a particularly strong 2H23 (4.9% Q3 and 3.4% Q4) aided by booming productivity growth, with continued focus on the extent to which supply side improvements have helped at least partly mitigate strong demand in terms of inflationary pressure. The release will also include the Q1 estimate for core PCE inflation, with the usual implications for the March reading released on Friday. However, the Fed’s Powell has already indicated it should track 2.8% Y/Y in March which should limit the potential for surprises barring particularly large monthly revisions that alter the very latest momentum.
FRIDAY - BOJ DECISION
No policy adjustment is anticipated at the upcoming two-day meeting ending on April 26, following last month's decision to raise rates for the first time since 2007. However, a growing number of economists foresee the possibility of the BoJ implementing another rate hike in October, with many highlighting July as a potential earlier timeframe. The prospect of a weaker yen is cited among the factors that could accelerate this timeline. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that the BoJ will revise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 2.6% and project a 2% price growth for the fiscal year commencing in April 2026. This adjustment reflects optimism regarding wage trends.
FRIDAY - CBR DECISION
No change to the Central Bank of Russia’s key rate of 16% is expected, however, some analysts expect officials to provide firmer guidance on when the first rate cut will be made.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 22/04/2024 | 2301/0001 | * |  | UK | Rightmove House Prices Index |
| 22/04/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 22/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 22/04/2024 | 1400/1600 | ** |  | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 22/04/2024 | 1430/1030 | | CA | BOC market participants survey | |
| 22/04/2024 | 1530/1730 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde Lecture at Yale | |
| 22/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 22/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 23/04/2024 | 2300/0900 | *** |  | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 23/04/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 23/04/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 23/04/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 23/04/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** | | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/04/2024 | 0730/0930 | ** |  | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 23/04/2024 | 0730/0930 | ** | | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 23/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 23/04/2024 | 0800/0900 | | UK | BOE's Haskel Panelist at Econometric Seminar | |
| 23/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 23/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 23/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 23/04/2024 | 1115/1215 | | UK | BOE's Pill Speech at University of Chicago | |
| 23/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 23/04/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 23/04/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (flash) |
| 23/04/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 23/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | New Home Sales |
| 23/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 23/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 23/04/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 24/04/2024 | 2301/0001 | * | | UK | XpertHR pay deals for whole economy |
| 24/04/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** | | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 24/04/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** | | AU | CPI inflation |
| 24/04/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Unemployment |
| 24/04/2024 | 0600/1400 | ** |  | CN | MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI) |
| 24/04/2024 | 0735/0935 | | EU | ECB's Cipollone speech at ECB retail payments conference | |
| 24/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 24/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 24/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24/04/2024 | 0910/1110 | | EU | ECB's Cipollone panel at ECB Retail Payments Conference | |
| 24/04/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 24/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | Retail Trade |
| 24/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 24/04/2024 | 1300/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 24/04/2024 | 1400/1600 | | EU | ECB's Schnabel remarks at '"Frankfurt liest ein Buch" | |
| 24/04/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 24/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 24/04/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 24/04/2024 | 1730/1330 | | CA | BOC Minutes (Summary of Deliberations) | |
| 25/04/2024 | 0600/0800 | * | | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 25/04/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | SE | PPI |
| 25/04/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 25/04/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | ES | PPI |
| 25/04/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 25/04/2024 | 0700/0900 | | EU | ECB's Schnabel Speech for 'ChaMP' | |
| 25/04/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 25/04/2024 | 1100/0700 | *** |  | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 25/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 25/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 25/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | GDP |
| 25/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 25/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 25/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 25/04/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 25/04/2024 | 1500/1100 | ** | | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 25/04/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 26/04/2024 | 2301/0001 | ** | | UK | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 26/04/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** | | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 26/04/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade price indexes |
| 26/04/2024 | 0200/1100 | *** | | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 26/04/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | M3 |
| 26/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 26/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | | EU | ECB's De Guindos at Academia Europea Leadership | |
| 26/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 26/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 26/04/2024 | 1500/1100 | | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 26/04/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.