MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Consumer Confidence & PPIs

Gfk Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 0700 GMT)

• Analysts are forecasting Germany’s GfK headline consumer confidence index to drop to -2.5 points for January, following December’s decline to the six-month low of -1.6 which encompassed concerns about a surging fourth wave of COVID-19 cases combined with high inflation squeezing disposable income and spending.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 1500 GMT)

• The flash estimate for Eurozone consumer confidence also looks set to take a considerable hit for December, projected to fall to -8.5 from November’s reading of -6.8.
• Consumer confidence is falling due to the surge in covid cases and strong inflationary pressures in the region, whilst last week’s ECB policy meeting reinforced that a 2022 hike is “very unlikely”.

PPI Data

Factory gate inflation across European economies is surging due to common themes of soaring prices for energy and intermediate goods and persistent (although somewhat easing) supply chain disruptions. Records highs were hit across the board in the latest October numbers and Friday saw Germany’s November PPI kicking off the round with at a 70-year high.

• Italy (Tues 1000 GMT): Analysts are predicting a further increase in Italy’s PPI reading for November, expected to hit 24.5% (TE) y/y, up from October’s series high of 20.4% y/y growth.
• France (Wed 0745 GMT): France saw factory gate inflation jump to a record high of 14.9% y/y in October. Forecast?
• Spain (Wed 0800 GMT): Spanish factory gate inflation hit a record high of 31.9% y/y in October, jumping over eight percentage points. Energy costs and intermediate goods hit record highs in October’s reading, with energy costs surging 87.3% y/y. Forecast?

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
20/12/2021	0900/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Acc
20/12/2021	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
20/12/2021	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
20/12/2021	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
20/12/2021	1800/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
21/12/2021	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
21/12/2021	1330/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
21/12/2021	1330/0830	*		US	current account balance
21/12/2021	1330/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
21/12/2021	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
21/12/2021	1500/1600	**		EU	consumer confidence indicator (p)
21/12/2021	1630/1130	**		US	NY Fed Weekly Economic Index
21/12/2021	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
22/12/2021	0700/0700	*		UK	Quarterly current account balance
22/12/2021	0700/0700	***		UK	GDP Second Estimate
22/12/2021	0700/1500	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Suvey
22/12/2021	0745/0845	**		FR	PPI
22/12/2021	0800/0900	**		ES	PPI
22/12/2021	0830/0930	**		SE	PPI
22/12/2021	0830/0930	**		SE	Retail Sales
22/12/2021	1200/0700	**		US	MBA weekly applications index
22/12/2021	1330/0830	***		US	GDP (3rd)
22/12/2021	1500/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
22/12/2021	1530/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
22/12/2021	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
23/12/2021	0800/0900	***		ES	GDP (f)
23/12/2021	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
23/12/2021	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
23/12/2021	1330/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
23/12/2021	1330/0830	**		US	durable goods new orders
23/12/2021	1330/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
23/12/2021	1330/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
23/12/2021	1330/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
23/12/2021	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
23/12/2021	1400/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
23/12/2021	1500/1000	***		US	Final Michigan Sentiment Index
23/12/2021	1500/1000	***		US	new home sales
23/12/2021	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
23/12/2021	2130/1630	**		US	Fed Weekly Money Supply Data
24/12/2021	1600/1100	**		US	St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast
24/12/2021	1600/1100	**		US	NY Fed GDP Nowcast