Free Trial


TUESDAY - Japan Tokyo CPI

The Tokyo Feb CPI is seen rebounding from a y/y momentum standpoint. Headline is expected at 2.5% (versus 1.6% prior). The same outcome is projected for the ex-fresh food measure, while the index which excludes energy as well is seen steady at 3.1%. Whilst there will be some focus on underlying inflation trends, comments from Governor Ueda this week have made it clear that the current spring wage negotiations are the key focus point around assessing sustainability of reaching the inflation target.


The Chancellor is due to deliver his Budget speech on Wednesday and this will also be accompanied by new OBR fiscal and economic forecasts as well as the DMO remit for the 2024/25 fiscal year. The measures under consideration are thought to include a 1-2ppt decrease to the basic rate of income tax, although expectations appear to have reduced and now look for a smaller 1ppt cut to employee NIC (a similar payroll tax but less expensive and would only benefit those of working age rather than pensioners). The Bank of England's MaPS survey showed indiacted that the median expectation for the gilt remit for 2024/25 was GBP256bln, just under a GBP20bln increase from teh 2023/24 remit.


The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its overnight policy rate at 5% on Wednesday, in a non-MPR meeting but one that is still followed by a press conference in this year’s new format. A recent survey saw the median analyst expect a first rate cut in June vs July implied by OIS. In the six weeks since the last meeting, GDP growth has come in stronger than analysts and the Bank expected, but CPI inflation was notably softer. We viewed the totality of some conflicting January communications as leaning marginally dovish. One of the hawkish aspects was the warning over the persistence of underlying inflation in the concluding paragraph of the rate decision statement. Market participants will no doubt be focused on how Governing Council assess the latest inflation developments.


The NBP is unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. This follows a slightly more hawkish policy statement in January and guidance from Governor Glapiński that interest rates are unlikely to change through the remainder of this year. An updated set of macroeconomic forecasts will be released – including new inflation projections.

WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - Fed Chair Powell Testimony

Powell testifies before the House (Wed) and Senate (Thu), offering an early look at potential Fed messaging ahead of the March 19-20 FOMC decision and the last main steer before the media blackout starts Mar 9. There will however be a payrolls and CPI report to digest between Powell’s remarks and then. The particularly widely shared message from FOMC participants since the January decision has been the Fed having patience to assess when it needs to start cutting, with some pushing for flexibility by trying to disconnect the need to move at meetings with quarterly forecasts. We expect to see a similar message from Powell. Market pricing has corrected significantly since the six cuts priced for 2024 at the turn of the year, almost getting to the three cuts the median FOMC participant penciled in at the December SEP before most recently moving to nearer 90bps after softer data.


The ECB are unanimously expected to leave the main refinancing operations rate on hold at 4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday. Main focus will be on the guidance paragraph in the context of the updated set of macroeconomic projections. While the ECB's headline inflation forecast is likely to be revised lower, the same is not certain for core inflation, where disinflation progress has been slower than analyst projections (highlighted in the latest instance by the February flash print). Governing Council comments in recent weeks have pushed back on the idea of early rate cuts, and President Lagarde will likely adopt a similarly patient tone in the press conference. Our policy team's most recent sources piece suggested that GC members see a range of 50-100bp of cuts in '24, with June the most likely meeting for the easing cycle to begin at present.


BNM is widely seen to be on hold. Domestic economic headwinds are evident but with FX weakness a fresh focus point (USD/MYR touched above 4.8000 recently, highs back to the late 1990s), now is not the time for BNM to turn dovish. A more hawkish outlook, or a surprise hike may help FX in the near term, but the large wedge between BNM's policy rate and the Fed's would remain. Hence we see the central bank on hold at this policy meeting.


BCRP is expected to continue with its gradual easing cycle and cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 6.0% next Thursday. This would be seventh consecutive cut, following the beginning of the easing cycle last September. Monetary conditions remain tight, and with the economy still in the early stages of a recovery and inflation easing, BCRP has room to cut further, although policymakers may keep a cautious tone.

FRIDAY - US Labour Market Data

The US nonfarm payrolls report for February is to be watched particularly closely to get a better idea of how much January’s bumper jobs growth was down to favorable seasonality. Consensus currently sees a 190k increase in Feb after a far stronger than expected 353k in Jan, with two-month revisions watched even more closely than usual. Along with January’s seasonality of start-of-year job cuts amidst a tight labor market, bad weather also likely hindered average hours worked which in turn artificially boosted average hourly earnings. To this end, consensus currently sees hours worked bounce 0.2pts to 34.3 with AHE growth easing from 0.6% to 0.2% M/M. It would see hours worked back at the lower end of levels seen oscillating between 34.3-34.4 since Mar'23, but with AHE growth at its softest since Aug'23.

04/03/20240030/1130*AU Building Approvals
04/03/20240030/1130AU Business Indicators
04/03/20240700/0200*TR Turkey CPI
04/03/20240730/0830***CH CPI
04/03/20241600/1100US Philly Fed's Pat Harker
04/03/20241630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
04/03/20241630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
05/03/20242330/0830**JP Tokyo CPI
05/03/20240001/0001*UK BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
05/03/20240030/1130AU Balance of Payments: Current Account
05/03/20240100/0900CN National People's Congress opens
05/03/20240745/0845*FR Industrial Production
05/03/20240900/1000***IT GDP (f)
05/03/20241000/1100**EU PPI
05/03/20241000/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
05/03/20241355/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
05/03/20241500/1000***US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
05/03/20241500/1000**US Factory New Orders
05/03/20241630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
05/03/20241700/1200US Fed Governor Michael Barr
05/03/20242030/1530US Fed Governor Michael Barr
06/03/20240030/1130***AU Quarterly GDP
06/03/20240700/0800**DE Trade Balance
06/03/20240830/0930**EU IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06/03/20240930/0930**UK IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
06/03/20241000/1100**EU Retail Sales
06/03/20241200/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
06/03/20241230/1230UK Budget Statement
06/03/20241315/0815***US ADP Employment Report
06/03/20241445/0945***CA Bank of Canada Policy Decision
06/03/20241500/1000*CA Ivey PMI
06/03/20241500/1000**US Wholesale Trade
06/03/20241500/1000***US JOLTS jobs opening level
06/03/20241500/1000***US JOLTS quits Rate
06/03/20241500/1000US Fed Chair Jay Powell
06/03/20241530/1030**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
06/03/20241530/1030CA BOC Press Conference
06/03/20241700/1200US San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
06/03/20241900/1400US Fed Beige Book
07/03/20240030/1130**AU Trade Balance
07/03/20240030/1130**AU Lending Finance Details
07/03/20240645/0745**CH Unemployment
07/03/20240700/0800**DE Manufacturing Orders
07/03/20240930/0930UK BOE's Monthly Decision Maker Panel Data
07/03/2024-***CN Trade
07/03/20241315/1415***EU ECB Deposit Rate
07/03/20241315/1415***EU ECB Main Refi Rate
07/03/20241315/1415***EU ECB Marginal Lending Rate
07/03/20241330/0830***US Jobless Claims
07/03/20241330/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
07/03/20241330/0830*CA Building Permits
07/03/20241330/0830**US Trade Balance
07/03/20241330/0830**US Non-Farm Productivity (f)
07/03/20241330/0830**CA International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
07/03/20241345/1445EU ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference
07/03/20241500/1000US Fed Chair Jay Powell
07/03/20241500/1600EU ECB Podcast - Lagarde presents latest monpol
07/03/20241530/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
07/03/20241630/1130US Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
07/03/20242000/1500*US Consumer Credit
08/03/20242350/0850**JP Trade
08/03/20240500/1400JP Economy Watchers Survey
08/03/20240700/0800**DE Industrial Production
08/03/20240700/0800**DE PPI
08/03/20240700/0800**SE Private Sector Production m/m
08/03/20240745/0845*FR Foreign Trade
08/03/20240800/0900**ES Industrial Production
08/03/20240900/1000**IT PPI
08/03/20241000/1100***EU GDP (final)
08/03/20241000/1100*EU Employment
08/03/20241200/0700US New York Fed's John Williams
08/03/20241330/0830***CA Labour Force Survey
08/03/20241330/0830***US Employment Report
08/03/20241700/1200***US USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
08/03/20241800/1300**US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.