Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TUESDAY - Japan Tokyo CPI
The Tokyo Feb CPI is seen rebounding from a y/y momentum standpoint. Headline is expected at 2.5% (versus 1.6% prior). The same outcome is projected for the ex-fresh food measure, while the index which excludes energy as well is seen steady at 3.1%. Whilst there will be some focus on underlying inflation trends, comments from Governor Ueda this week have made it clear that the current spring wage negotiations are the key focus point around assessing sustainability of reaching the inflation target.
WEDNESDAY - UK Budget
The Chancellor is due to deliver his Budget speech on Wednesday and this will also be accompanied by new OBR fiscal and economic forecasts as well as the DMO remit for the 2024/25 fiscal year. The measures under consideration are thought to include a 1-2ppt decrease to the basic rate of income tax, although expectations appear to have reduced and now look for a smaller 1ppt cut to employee NIC (a similar payroll tax but less expensive and would only benefit those of working age rather than pensioners). The Bank of England's MaPS survey showed indiacted that the median expectation for the gilt remit for 2024/25 was GBP256bln, just under a GBP20bln increase from teh 2023/24 remit.
WEDNESDAY - BOC Decision
The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its overnight policy rate at 5% on Wednesday, in a non-MPR meeting but one that is still followed by a press conference in this year’s new format. A recent survey saw the median analyst expect a first rate cut in June vs July implied by OIS. In the six weeks since the last meeting, GDP growth has come in stronger than analysts and the Bank expected, but CPI inflation was notably softer. We viewed the totality of some conflicting January communications as leaning marginally dovish. One of the hawkish aspects was the warning over the persistence of underlying inflation in the concluding paragraph of the rate decision statement. Market participants will no doubt be focused on how Governing Council assess the latest inflation developments.
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision
The NBP is unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. This follows a slightly more hawkish policy statement in January and guidance from Governor Glapiński that interest rates are unlikely to change through the remainder of this year. An updated set of macroeconomic forecasts will be released – including new inflation projections.
WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Powell testifies before the House (Wed) and Senate (Thu), offering an early look at potential Fed messaging ahead of the March 19-20 FOMC decision and the last main steer before the media blackout starts Mar 9. There will however be a payrolls and CPI report to digest between Powell’s remarks and then. The particularly widely shared message from FOMC participants since the January decision has been the Fed having patience to assess when it needs to start cutting, with some pushing for flexibility by trying to disconnect the need to move at meetings with quarterly forecasts. We expect to see a similar message from Powell. Market pricing has corrected significantly since the six cuts priced for 2024 at the turn of the year, almost getting to the three cuts the median FOMC participant penciled in at the December SEP before most recently moving to nearer 90bps after softer data.
THURSDAY - ECB Decision
The ECB are unanimously expected to leave the main refinancing operations rate on hold at 4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday. Main focus will be on the guidance paragraph in the context of the updated set of macroeconomic projections. While the ECB's headline inflation forecast is likely to be revised lower, the same is not certain for core inflation, where disinflation progress has been slower than analyst projections (highlighted in the latest instance by the February flash print). Governing Council comments in recent weeks have pushed back on the idea of early rate cuts, and President Lagarde will likely adopt a similarly patient tone in the press conference. Our policy team's most recent sources piece suggested that GC members see a range of 50-100bp of cuts in '24, with June the most likely meeting for the easing cycle to begin at present.
THURSDAY - BNM Decision
BNM is widely seen to be on hold. Domestic economic headwinds are evident but with FX weakness a fresh focus point (USD/MYR touched above 4.8000 recently, highs back to the late 1990s), now is not the time for BNM to turn dovish. A more hawkish outlook, or a surprise hike may help FX in the near term, but the large wedge between BNM's policy rate and the Fed's would remain. Hence we see the central bank on hold at this policy meeting.
THURSDAY - BCRP Decision
BCRP is expected to continue with its gradual easing cycle and cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 6.0% next Thursday. This would be seventh consecutive cut, following the beginning of the easing cycle last September. Monetary conditions remain tight, and with the economy still in the early stages of a recovery and inflation easing, BCRP has room to cut further, although policymakers may keep a cautious tone.
FRIDAY - US Labour Market Data
The US nonfarm payrolls report for February is to be watched particularly closely to get a better idea of how much January’s bumper jobs growth was down to favorable seasonality. Consensus currently sees a 190k increase in Feb after a far stronger than expected 353k in Jan, with two-month revisions watched even more closely than usual. Along with January’s seasonality of start-of-year job cuts amidst a tight labor market, bad weather also likely hindered average hours worked which in turn artificially boosted average hourly earnings. To this end, consensus currently sees hours worked bounce 0.2pts to 34.3 with AHE growth easing from 0.6% to 0.2% M/M. It would see hours worked back at the lower end of levels seen oscillating between 34.3-34.4 since Mar'23, but with AHE growth at its softest since Aug'23.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 04/03/2024 | 0030/1130 | * |  | AU | Building Approvals |
| 04/03/2024 | 0030/1130 | | AU | Business Indicators | |
| 04/03/2024 | 0700/0200 | * |  | TR | Turkey CPI |
| 04/03/2024 | 0730/0830 | *** |  | CH | CPI |
| 04/03/2024 | 1600/1100 |  | US | Philly Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 04/03/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 04/03/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 05/03/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** |  | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 05/03/2024 | 0001/0001 | * |  | UK | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 05/03/2024 | 0030/1130 | | AU | Balance of Payments: Current Account | |
| 05/03/2024 | 0100/0900 |  | CN | National People's Congress opens | |
| 05/03/2024 | 0745/0845 | * |  | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/03/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** |  | IT | GDP (f) |
| 05/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | EU | PPI |
| 05/03/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 05/03/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 05/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Factory New Orders |
| 05/03/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 05/03/2024 | 1700/1200 | | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 05/03/2024 | 2030/1530 | | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 06/03/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | | AU | Quarterly GDP |
| 06/03/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | Trade Balance |
| 06/03/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/03/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06/03/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 06/03/2024 | 1230/1230 | | UK | Budget Statement | |
| 06/03/2024 | 1315/0815 | *** | | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 06/03/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** |  | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 06/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 06/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 06/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 06/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 06/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | | US | Fed Chair Jay Powell | |
| 06/03/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 06/03/2024 | 1530/1030 | | CA | BOC Press Conference | |
| 06/03/2024 | 1700/1200 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 06/03/2024 | 1900/1400 | | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 07/03/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade Balance |
| 07/03/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** | | AU | Lending Finance Details |
| 07/03/2024 | 0645/0745 | ** | | CH | Unemployment |
| 07/03/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 07/03/2024 | 0930/0930 | | UK | BOE's Monthly Decision Maker Panel Data | |
| 07/03/2024 | - | *** | | CN | Trade |
| 07/03/2024 | 1315/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 07/03/2024 | 1315/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 07/03/2024 | 1315/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 07/03/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 07/03/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 07/03/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | Building Permits |
| 07/03/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 07/03/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Non-Farm Productivity (f) |
| 07/03/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 07/03/2024 | 1345/1445 | | EU | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference | |
| 07/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | | US | Fed Chair Jay Powell | |
| 07/03/2024 | 1500/1600 | | EU | ECB Podcast - Lagarde presents latest monpol | |
| 07/03/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 07/03/2024 | 1630/1130 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 07/03/2024 | 2000/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
| 08/03/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | | JP | Trade |
| 08/03/2024 | 0500/1400 | | JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
| 08/03/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Industrial Production |
| 08/03/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | PPI |
| 08/03/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 08/03/2024 | 0745/0845 | * | | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 08/03/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | ES | Industrial Production |
| 08/03/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | IT | PPI |
| 08/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | GDP (final) |
| 08/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Employment |
| 08/03/2024 | 1200/0700 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 08/03/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 08/03/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 08/03/2024 | 1700/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 08/03/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.