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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Fed, SNB,  Norges & BOE to Meet

MNI (London)

After a volatile week in markets, next week’s Fed, SNB, Norges and BOE rate decisions could see a variety of outcomes.

MONDAY

Germany Producer Prices: German factory-gate inflation is projected to cool for a fifth consecutive month in February, with consensus looking for a 3.1pp deceleration to +14.5% y/y. January and February deadline PPI will likely be revised down in the March release as the delayed effects of the electricity and gas price breaks will be taken into account.

TUESDAY

Germany ZEW Survey: The ZEW survey of financial market experts will likely see outlooks fall back in March due to financial market turmoil. Around a ten-point reduction in survey expectations is currently pencilled in.

Canada CPI: Canadian inflation is expected to ease further by around 0.5bp to +5.4% y/y in February, after having cooled to +5.9% y/y in January.

At their March meeting, the BOC held the overnight rate at 4.5% as unanimously expected as it drew a potentially temporary end to the 425bp hiking cycle started last March. The Bank still sees CPI inflation coming down to around 3% in the middle of this year.

WEDNESDAY

UK CPI: UK inflation is seen lower again in February, with consensus looking for a 0.3pp deceleration to +9.8% y/y. Prices are expected to pick up on the month, accelerating by +0.5% m/m after having fallen -0.6% m/m in January. Further signs of cooling core CPI will be watched for. This data will feed into the Thursday rate announcement.

FOMC Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve still looks like it could hike 25bp next week, after another strong payrolls report and sticky core pressures warranting another hike. A break in its interest rate increases at its March meeting is however on the table against the current backdrop of turmoil in global financial markets.

THURSDAY

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision: A 50bp hike to 1.5% is pencilled in for the SNB on Thursday, which would be their third hike in this cycle. This follows the upside surprise to January inflation, which edged up to +3.4% y/y a record high for Swiss core CPI of +2.5% y/y. Financial market stress has increased substantially over the last week as the SNB stepped in to provide a liquidity backstop for flailing Credit Suisse. Current financial strain in markets is at current not seen to deter the SNB for now but remains a very real possibility.

Norges Bank Rate Decision: Norges Bank is likely to hike 25bp to 3.00% at their March meeting, also likely for now to be undeterred from financial market strains. The slowdown in headline and core CPI in February made a 50bp hike less likely.

Bank of England Rate Decision: The BOE’s March rate announcement will be a close call between no hike and 25bp. Recent financial market volatility will likely have influenced the BOE to shy away from further tightening, whilst, albeit cooling, still elevated CPI (barring the possibility of surprises to Feb data) and inflation expectations would underpin a decision to hike.

FRIDAY

UK Consumer Confidence / Retail Sales: UK consumer confidence is forecasted to improve by another three points to -35 in March after surprising to the upside in February. Despite recent improvements, all sub-indices remain severely depressed, implying that spending will remain pressured in the near term, along with growth.

In line with this, UK February retail sales are likely to be only marginally above a flat reading. The BOE's February projections expect household consumption to fall in H1 and rise again from Q3.

Spain Final GDP: The Spanish economy grew +0.2% q/q, in the flash estimate, holding pace with Q3. The Spanish Statistics Institute flagged that Q4 provisional data is based on substantially less information than regular quarterly flash estimates. As such, a revision to Q4 growth is on the cards.

March Flash PMIs: Flash March PMI data for the eurozone, UK and US is anticipated to convey common themes of a small cooldown in services (which have recently re-entered expansive territory), as demand eases slightly. Meanwhile modest upticks are expected across manufacturing, underpinned by easing supply pressures, despite the PMIs largely remaining below the 50 breakeven level.


DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
20/03/20230700/0800**DE PPI
20/03/20230730/0730UK DMO to Confirm Gilts on Offer at 4/5 April Auctions
20/03/20231000/1100*EU Trade Balance
20/03/2023-UK DMO Quarterly Consultation with GEMMs / Investors
20/03/20231400/1500EUECB Lagarde Intro at ECON Hearing
20/03/20231530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
20/03/20231530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
20/03/20231600/1700EUECB Lagarde Intro as ESRB Chair at ECON
21/03/20230700/0700***UK Public Sector Finances
21/03/20231000/1100***DE ZEW Current Conditions Index
21/03/20231000/1100***DE ZEW Current Expectations Index
21/03/20231000/1100**EU Construction Production
21/03/20231230/0830***CA CPI
21/03/20231230/0830**US Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
21/03/20231230/1330EUECB Lagarde Panellist at BIS Summit
21/03/20231255/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
21/03/20231400/1000***US NAR existing home sales
21/03/20231530/1130**US US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
21/03/20231700/1300**US US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
22/03/20230001/0001*UK XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
22/03/20230700/0700***UK Consumer inflation report
22/03/20230700/0700***UK Producer Prices
22/03/20230845/0945EUECB Lagarde Address at ECB and its Watchers Conference
22/03/20230900/1000**EU EZ Current Account
22/03/20230930/0930*UK ONS House Price Index
22/03/20230930/1030EUECB Lane in Debate at ECB and its Watchers Conference
22/03/20231000/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
22/03/20231100/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
22/03/20231100/1100**UK CBI Industrial Trends
22/03/20231345/1445EUECB Panetta in Debate at ECB and its Watchers Conference
22/03/20231430/1030**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
22/03/20231730/1330CA BOC minutes from last rate meeting
22/03/20231800/1400***US FOMC Statement
23/03/20230830/0930***CH SNB PolicyRate
23/03/20230900/1000***NO Norges Bank Rate Decision
23/03/20231100/0700*TR Turkey Benchmark Rate
23/03/20231200/1200***UK Bank Of England Interest Rate
23/03/20231200/1200***UK Bank Of England Interest Rate
23/03/20231230/0830**US Jobless Claims
23/03/20231230/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
23/03/20231230/0830*US Current Account Balance
23/03/20231400/1000***US New Home Sales
23/03/20231430/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
23/03/20231500/1100**US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
23/03/20231500/1600**EU Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
23/03/20231500/1600EUECB Lane Panels Peterson Institute Conference
23/03/20231700/1300**US US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
24/03/20232200/0900***AU Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
24/03/20230001/0001**UK Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
24/03/20230030/0930**JP Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
24/03/20230700/0800**SE PPI
24/03/20230700/0700***UK Retail Sales
24/03/20230730/0730UK DMO to Publish Apr-Jun Gilt Op Calendar
24/03/20230800/0900**ES PPI
24/03/20230800/0900***ES GDP (f)
24/03/20230815/0915**FR S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/03/20230815/0915**FR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/03/20230830/0930**DE S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/03/20230830/0930**DE S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/03/20230900/1000**EU S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/03/20230900/1000**EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/03/20230900/1000**EU S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
24/03/20230930/0930***UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
24/03/20230930/0930***UK S&P Global Services PMI flash
24/03/20230930/0930***UK S&P Global Composite PMI flash
24/03/20231230/0830**CA Retail Trade
24/03/20231230/0830**US Durable Goods New Orders
24/03/20231330/0930US St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
24/03/20231345/0945***US IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
24/03/20231345/0945***US S&P Global Services Index (flash)
24/03/20231400/1500**BE BNB Business Sentiment
24/03/20231600/1600UKBOE Mann Panellist at Global Independence Center Conference Ukraine
24/03/20231630/1630UK BOE Announces Q2 Active Gilt Sales Schedule

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