MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Fed, SNB,  Norges & BOE to Meet

After a volatile week in markets, next week’s Fed, SNB, Norges and BOE rate decisions could see a variety of outcomes.

MONDAY

Germany Producer Prices: German factory-gate inflation is projected to cool for a fifth consecutive month in February, with consensus looking for a 3.1pp deceleration to +14.5% y/y. January and February deadline PPI will likely be revised down in the March release as the delayed effects of the electricity and gas price breaks will be taken into account.

TUESDAY

Germany ZEW Survey: The ZEW survey of financial market experts will likely see outlooks fall back in March due to financial market turmoil. Around a ten-point reduction in survey expectations is currently pencilled in.

Canada CPI: Canadian inflation is expected to ease further by around 0.5bp to +5.4% y/y in February, after having cooled to +5.9% y/y in January.

At their March meeting, the BOC held the overnight rate at 4.5% as unanimously expected as it drew a potentially temporary end to the 425bp hiking cycle started last March. The Bank still sees CPI inflation coming down to around 3% in the middle of this year.

WEDNESDAY

UK CPI: UK inflation is seen lower again in February, with consensus looking for a 0.3pp deceleration to +9.8% y/y. Prices are expected to pick up on the month, accelerating by +0.5% m/m after having fallen -0.6% m/m in January. Further signs of cooling core CPI will be watched for. This data will feed into the Thursday rate announcement.

FOMC Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve still looks like it could hike 25bp next week, after another strong payrolls report and sticky core pressures warranting another hike. A break in its interest rate increases at its March meeting is however on the table against the current backdrop of turmoil in global financial markets.

THURSDAY

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision: A 50bp hike to 1.5% is pencilled in for the SNB on Thursday, which would be their third hike in this cycle. This follows the upside surprise to January inflation, which edged up to +3.4% y/y a record high for Swiss core CPI of +2.5% y/y. Financial market stress has increased substantially over the last week as the SNB stepped in to provide a liquidity backstop for flailing Credit Suisse. Current financial strain in markets is at current not seen to deter the SNB for now but remains a very real possibility.

Norges Bank Rate Decision: Norges Bank is likely to hike 25bp to 3.00% at their March meeting, also likely for now to be undeterred from financial market strains. The slowdown in headline and core CPI in February made a 50bp hike less likely.

Bank of England Rate Decision: The BOE’s March rate announcement will be a close call between no hike and 25bp. Recent financial market volatility will likely have influenced the BOE to shy away from further tightening, whilst, albeit cooling, still elevated CPI (barring the possibility of surprises to Feb data) and inflation expectations would underpin a decision to hike.

FRIDAY

UK Consumer Confidence / Retail Sales: UK consumer confidence is forecasted to improve by another three points to -35 in March after surprising to the upside in February. Despite recent improvements, all sub-indices remain severely depressed, implying that spending will remain pressured in the near term, along with growth.

In line with this, UK February retail sales are likely to be only marginally above a flat reading. The BOE's February projections expect household consumption to fall in H1 and rise again from Q3.

Spain Final GDP: The Spanish economy grew +0.2% q/q, in the flash estimate, holding pace with Q3. The Spanish Statistics Institute flagged that Q4 provisional data is based on substantially less information than regular quarterly flash estimates. As such, a revision to Q4 growth is on the cards.

March Flash PMIs: Flash March PMI data for the eurozone, UK and US is anticipated to convey common themes of a small cooldown in services (which have recently re-entered expansive territory), as demand eases slightly. Meanwhile modest upticks are expected across manufacturing, underpinned by easing supply pressures, despite the PMIs largely remaining below the 50 breakeven level.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
20/03/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/03/2023	0730/0730			UK	DMO to Confirm Gilts on Offer at 4/5 April Auctions
20/03/2023	1000/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
20/03/2023	-			UK	DMO Quarterly Consultation with GEMMs / Investors
20/03/2023	1400/1500			EU	ECB Lagarde Intro at ECON Hearing
20/03/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
20/03/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
20/03/2023	1600/1700			EU	ECB Lagarde Intro as ESRB Chair at ECON
21/03/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
21/03/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
21/03/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
21/03/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
21/03/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
21/03/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
21/03/2023	1230/1330			EU	ECB Lagarde Panellist at BIS Summit
21/03/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
21/03/2023	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
21/03/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
21/03/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
22/03/2023	0001/0001	*		UK	XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
22/03/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
22/03/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
22/03/2023	0845/0945			EU	ECB Lagarde Address at ECB and its Watchers Conference
22/03/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Account
22/03/2023	0930/0930	*		UK	ONS House Price Index
22/03/2023	0930/1030			EU	ECB Lane in Debate at ECB and its Watchers Conference
22/03/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
22/03/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
22/03/2023	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
22/03/2023	1345/1445			EU	ECB Panetta in Debate at ECB and its Watchers Conference
22/03/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
22/03/2023	1730/1330			CA	BOC minutes from last rate meeting
22/03/2023	1800/1400	***		US	FOMC Statement
23/03/2023	0830/0930	***		CH	SNB PolicyRate
23/03/2023	0900/1000	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
23/03/2023	1100/0700	*		TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
23/03/2023	1200/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
23/03/2023	1200/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
23/03/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
23/03/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
23/03/2023	1230/0830	*		US	Current Account Balance
23/03/2023	1400/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
23/03/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
23/03/2023	1500/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
23/03/2023	1500/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
23/03/2023	1500/1600			EU	ECB Lane Panels Peterson Institute Conference
23/03/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
24/03/2023	2200/0900	***		AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
24/03/2023	0001/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
24/03/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
24/03/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	PPI
24/03/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
24/03/2023	0730/0730			UK	DMO to Publish Apr-Jun Gilt Op Calendar
24/03/2023	0800/0900	**		ES	PPI
24/03/2023	0800/0900	***		ES	GDP (f)
24/03/2023	0815/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/03/2023	0815/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/03/2023	0830/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/03/2023	0830/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/03/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/03/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/03/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
24/03/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
24/03/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Services PMI flash
24/03/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
24/03/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
24/03/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Durable Goods New Orders
24/03/2023	1330/0930			US	St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
24/03/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
24/03/2023	1345/0945	***		US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
24/03/2023	1400/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
24/03/2023	1600/1600			UK	BOE Mann Panellist at Global Independence Center Conference Ukraine
24/03/2023	1630/1630			UK	BOE Announces Q2 Active Gilt Sales Schedule