MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Jackson Hole Awaits

MNI (London) - The highlights of the week ahead will be the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, flash PMI data, and the Turkish central bank's rate decision.

WEDNESDAY: AUGUST FLASH PMIS
Flash August PMI readings on Wednesday for Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, UK and US are the highlight of the week's data docket. After largely disappointing in July, early consensus estimates suggest that August's readings are expected to see further deterioration. July's data showed Australia's composite PMI contracting for the first time since March driven by weaker services performance, while Japan's were basically steady from June with the composite in expansionary territory. European PMIs missed expectations to the downside, with manufacturing heading even deeper into contraction and the services sector decelerating more quickly - but despite a weak report on the growth front, services price pressures continued to look stubborn. In the US, activity in July was more resilient but likewise the report showed softer than expected business activity, accompanied by service price resilience.

THURSDAY: CBRT RATE DECISION
The Turkish central bank are expected to continue their campaign of post-Presidential election rate hikes, with the one-week repo rate expected to be hiked by as much as 200bps this month. Such a hike would put the policy rate at the highest nominal level since 2019, however real rates remain deep in negative territory, with core CPI re-accelerating above 50% Y/Y in July. Market focus looks beyond the headline policy rate to any further signals on macroprudential measures, as the still-new CBRT administration look to repair the transmission mechanism while managing acute liquidity risks.
The July policy statement flagged the risks of excess TRY liquidity hampering monetary policy, and subsequently introduced a series of credit-tightening measures, including higher reserve requirements on KKM accounts. Any further macroprudential steps will be carefully eyed this month given the recovery in official FX reserves back to pre-Presidential election levels.

THURSDAY TO SATURDAY: JACKSON HOLE
The Federal Reserve-hosted 2023 Economic Policy Symposium at will be held Aug 24-26, with this year's theme: "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy". The annual event in Jackson Hole, Wyoming provides a venue for insight into the current thinking of both Federal Reserve and non-US policymakers in attendance (ECB, BOE, BOC, BOJ speakers among others have featured in recent years). So far we have seen official confirmations of two key appearances: Fed Chair Powell will give the keynote speech on Friday morning, which will be the market focus for the week as a whole, with ECB President Lagarde speaking later on Friday. There is no official timing for the release of the complete Jackson Hole events schedule but historically it has been made public on Thursday at 20:00ET.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
21/08/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
21/08/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
21/08/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
22/08/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
22/08/2023	0600/0800	**		NO	Norway GDP
22/08/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Account
22/08/2023	0900/1000	*		UK	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
22/08/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
22/08/2023	-	*		FR	Retail Sales
22/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
22/08/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
22/08/2023	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
22/08/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
22/08/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
22/08/2023	1830/1430			US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
23/08/2023	2300/0900	***		AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
23/08/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
23/08/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/08/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/08/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/08/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/08/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/08/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/08/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
23/08/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
23/08/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Services PMI flash
23/08/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
23/08/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
23/08/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
23/08/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
23/08/2023	1345/0945	***		US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
23/08/2023	1400/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
23/08/2023	1400/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
23/08/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
23/08/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
23/08/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
24/08/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
24/08/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
24/08/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
24/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
24/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
24/08/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises
24/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Durable Goods New Orders
24/08/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
24/08/2023	1500/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
24/08/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 30 Year Bond
25/08/2023	2301/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
25/08/2023	0600/0800	***		DE	GDP (f)
25/08/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
25/08/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	PPI
25/08/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	PPI
25/08/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index Direction
25/08/2023	1300/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
25/08/2023	1400/1000	**		US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
25/08/2023	1500/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
25/08/2023	1900/2100			EU	ECB's Lagarde speaks at Jackson Hole
26/08/2023	1625/1725			UK	BoE's Broadbent speaks in Jackson Hole