MNI Global Week Ahead June 21 – 25

Key Things to Watch:

• Thursday, June 24 – Bank of England Policy Decision
  • Focus will be on how the MPC balances higher-than-expected inflation with a delay to the economic re-opening, with rates likely held at 0.1% and the total QE target maintained at GBP895 billion.
  • Andy Haldane, the BOE's Chief Economist, is again expected to vote for a reduction in the total QE the bank intends to complete by year-end. Haldane leaves his position shortly after the June meeting.
• An hawkish surprise could come if a second MPC member voted alongside Haldane, although there have been no public signals that the other eight members are peeling off from the collective view.

• Thursday, June 24 – U.S. Durable Goods
  • New orders of durable goods likely recovered in May after dipping in April, according to Bloomberg, forecasting an increase of 3%.
  • Excluding orders of transportation equipment, orders should increase 0.8% following a 1% gain in April.

• Friday, June 25 – U.S. Personal Income
  • U.S. personal income likely fell 2.8% in May according to Bloomberg, following April's 13.1% decline and reflecting waning government aid.
  • Spending is set to have slowed further in May, mostly driven by a drop in goods spending that could partially offset gains in services. Spending in May likely increased 0.3% following a 0.5% gain in April.
  • The PCE price index should increase 0.5% after rising 0.6% in April, while the core PCE price index should increase 0.6% following April's 0.7% gain.