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The October RBA Minutes will be gauge for any more insights into new Governor Bullock's thinking around the current policy backdrop. The monetary policy meeting earlier this month, which was the first she chaired as Governor, had minimal changes in it compared to the September statement. This says something in itself - for now it is business as usual. The Board retained its tightening bias and so has kept its options open for the November 7 decision given there will be updated forecasts and Q3 CPI due on October 25.


The UK sees a partial labour market report on Tuesday and CPI data released Wednesday. Inflation data for September are generally expected to see a small fall in Y/Y terms across both the headline and core (with a bigger decline expected in the headline rate in September due to energy price base effects). The Bank of England will likely remain focused on services inflation but as we noted previously output and survey data has become somewhat more important and the bar to a November hike will lower be higher than previously. The ONS has flagged some delays surrounding the labour market report. Our expectation is that we will see AWE, vacancies and PAYE data and most of the main subindices (but not all) released on Tuesday, as scheduled. But the employment / unemployment rates, the regional data and the rest of the subindices will be released one week later. The main market focus will be on the private sector regular pay data.


Eurozone final inflation is released on Wednesday. The point estimate will likely confirm the flash readings of 4.3% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M for headline, and 4.5% Y/Y for core. While not a market mover, the release will allow for a more granular analysis of the drivers of September inflation, as the flash estimate was soft relative to expectations. The fall in Y/Y core inflation was likely largely driven by the German transport ticket and other statistical / base effects, but the softer figure versus consensus may reflect more broad based disinflation than was expected. Additionally, the Eurostat data will be accompanied by the ECB's measures of underlying inflation, which are more closely watched by policymakers to determine inflation persistence and where inflation is likely to land in the medium term.


China Q3 GDP is released on Wednesday, and is expected to show a further slowdown in the world's second largest economy. Y/Y GDP is expected to be 4.5% (vs 6.3% prior), Q/Q GDP is seen at 1.0% (vs 0.8% prior) while the YTD GDP growth rate is expected at 5.1% (vs 5.5% prior).

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is unanimously expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5% again on Thursday, in order to counter colliding financial risks increasingly complicating the roadmap to economic recovery.

Bank Indonesia is also expected to keep its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 5.75% on Thursday, while reiterating its commitment to IDR stability.

14/10/20230030/0930**JP Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
14/10/20231500/1600UK BoE's Bailey speaks at G30 Seminar
14/10/20231510/1710EUECB's Lagarde participates in G30 seminar panel
16/10/20230800/1000**IT Italy Final HICP
16/10/20230830/0930UKBOE's Pill Speech at the OMFIF
16/10/20230900/1100*EU Trade Balance
16/10/20231230/0830**CA Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
16/10/20231230/0830**CA Wholesale Trade
16/10/20231230/0830**US Empire State Manufacturing Survey
16/10/20231430/1030**CA BOC Business Outlook Survey
16/10/20231430/1030US Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
16/10/20231530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
16/10/20231530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
16/10/20232030/1630US Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
17/10/20230030/1130***AU RBA board meeting minutes
17/10/20230600/0700***UK Labour Market Survey
17/10/20230900/1100***DE ZEW Current Conditions Index
17/10/20230900/1100***DE ZEW Current Expectations Index
17/10/20230900/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
17/10/20231200/0800US New York Fed's John Williams
17/10/2023-EU ECB's de Guindos attends Luxembourg Ecofin meeting
17/10/20231230/0830*CA International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/10/20231230/0830***CA CPI
17/10/20231230/0830***US Retail Sales
17/10/20231255/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
17/10/20231315/0915***US Industrial Production
17/10/20231400/1000**US NAHB Home Builder Index
17/10/20231400/1000*US Business Inventories
17/10/20231445/1045US Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
17/10/20231530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
17/10/20231700/1900EU ECB's De Guindos Speech at Conference
17/10/20232000/1600**US TICS
18/10/20232301/0001*UK XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
18/10/20230200/1000***CN Fixed-Asset Investment
18/10/20230200/1000***CN Retail Sales
18/10/20230200/1000***CN Industrial Output
18/10/20230200/1000**CN Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
18/10/20230200/1000***CN GDP
18/10/20230600/0700***UK Consumer inflation report
18/10/20230600/0700***UK Producer Prices
18/10/20230900/1100***EU HICP (f)
18/10/20230900/1100**EU Construction Production
18/10/20231100/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
18/10/20231215/0815**CA CMHC Housing Starts
18/10/20231230/0830***US Housing Starts
18/10/20231430/1030**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
18/10/20231630/1230US New York Fed's John Williams
18/10/20231700/1300**US US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
18/10/20231700/1300US Fed's Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman
18/10/20231800/1400US Fed Beige Book
18/10/20231915/1515US Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
19/10/20230030/1130***AU Labor Force Survey
19/10/20230645/0845**FR Manufacturing Sentiment
19/10/20230645/0845*FR Retail Sales
19/10/20230800/1000**EU EZ Current Account
19/10/20231230/0830***US Jobless Claims
19/10/20231230/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
19/10/20231230/0830*CA Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
19/10/20231230/0830**US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
19/10/20231400/1000***US NAR existing home sales
19/10/20231430/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
19/10/20231600/1200US Fed Chair Jerome Powell
19/10/20231700/1300**US US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
19/10/20231720/1320US Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
19/10/20232000/1600US Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
19/10/20232130/1730US Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
19/10/20232240/1840US Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
20/10/20232301/0001**UK Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
20/10/20230600/0800**DE PPI
20/10/20230600/0700***UK Public Sector Finances
20/10/20230600/0700***UK Retail Sales
20/10/20230600/0800**SE Unemployment
20/10/20231230/0830**CA Retail Trade
20/10/20231300/0900US Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
20/10/20231615/1215US Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester

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