MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - RBA MINUTES, UK DATA, EZ HICP AND EMs

TUESDAY - RBA SEPTEMBER DECISION MINUTES

The October RBA Minutes will be gauge for any more insights into new Governor Bullock's thinking around the current policy backdrop. The monetary policy meeting earlier this month, which was the first she chaired as Governor, had minimal changes in it compared to the September statement. This says something in itself - for now it is business as usual. The Board retained its tightening bias and so has kept its options open for the November 7 decision given there will be updated forecasts and Q3 CPI due on October 25.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY - UK LABOUR MARKET AND CPI

The UK sees a partial labour market report on Tuesday and CPI data released Wednesday. Inflation data for September are generally expected to see a small fall in Y/Y terms across both the headline and core (with a bigger decline expected in the headline rate in September due to energy price base effects). The Bank of England will likely remain focused on services inflation but as we noted previously output and survey data has become somewhat more important and the bar to a November hike will lower be higher than previously. The ONS has flagged some delays surrounding the labour market report. Our expectation is that we will see AWE, vacancies and PAYE data and most of the main subindices (but not all) released on Tuesday, as scheduled. But the employment / unemployment rates, the regional data and the rest of the subindices will be released one week later. The main market focus will be on the private sector regular pay data.

WEDNESDAY - EUROZONE FINAL SEPTEMBER INFLATION

Eurozone final inflation is released on Wednesday. The point estimate will likely confirm the flash readings of 4.3% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M for headline, and 4.5% Y/Y for core. While not a market mover, the release will allow for a more granular analysis of the drivers of September inflation, as the flash estimate was soft relative to expectations. The fall in Y/Y core inflation was likely largely driven by the German transport ticket and other statistical / base effects, but the softer figure versus consensus may reflect more broad based disinflation than was expected. Additionally, the Eurostat data will be accompanied by the ECB's measures of underlying inflation, which are more closely watched by policymakers to determine inflation persistence and where inflation is likely to land in the medium term.

SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY - POLAND ELECTION, CHINA GDP, BOK AND BOI

Poland holds its general election on Sunday 15 October in a vote that is being painted as one of the most significant in many years. The election outcome will have notable consequences for the direction of Polish policy making with regards to relations with the European Union (and ability to unlock frozen funds), the prospect of further judicial reforms, the trajectory of Poland’s fiscal outlook, and relations with neighbouring states in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

China Q3 GDP is released on Wednesday, and is expected to show a further slowdown in the world's second largest economy. Y/Y GDP is expected to be 4.5% (vs 6.3% prior), Q/Q GDP is seen at 1.0% (vs 0.8% prior) while the YTD GDP growth rate is expected at 5.1% (vs 5.5% prior).

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is unanimously expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5% again on Thursday, in order to counter colliding financial risks increasingly complicating the roadmap to economic recovery.

Bank Indonesia is also expected to keep its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 5.75% on Thursday, while reiterating its commitment to IDR stability.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
14/10/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
14/10/2023	1500/1600			UK	BoE's Bailey speaks at G30 Seminar
14/10/2023	1510/1710			EU	ECB's Lagarde participates in G30 seminar panel
16/10/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
16/10/2023	0830/0930			UK	BOE's Pill Speech at the OMFIF
16/10/2023	0900/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
16/10/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
16/10/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Wholesale Trade
16/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
16/10/2023	1430/1030	**		CA	BOC Business Outlook Survey
16/10/2023	1430/1030			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
16/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
16/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
16/10/2023	2030/1630			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
17/10/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	RBA board meeting minutes
17/10/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
17/10/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
17/10/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
17/10/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
17/10/2023	1200/0800			US	New York Fed's John Williams
17/10/2023	-			EU	ECB's de Guindos attends Luxembourg Ecofin meeting
17/10/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/10/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
17/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Retail Sales
17/10/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
17/10/2023	1315/0915	***		US	Industrial Production
17/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
17/10/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Business Inventories
17/10/2023	1445/1045			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
17/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
17/10/2023	1700/1900			EU	ECB's De Guindos Speech at Conference
17/10/2023	2000/1600	**		US	TICS
18/10/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
18/10/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
18/10/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Retail Sales
18/10/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Industrial Output
18/10/2023	0200/1000	**		CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
18/10/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	GDP
18/10/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
18/10/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
18/10/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
18/10/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
18/10/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
18/10/2023	1215/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
18/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
18/10/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
18/10/2023	1630/1230			US	New York Fed's John Williams
18/10/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
18/10/2023	1700/1300			US	Fed's Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman
18/10/2023	1800/1400			US	Fed Beige Book
18/10/2023	1915/1515			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
19/10/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	Labor Force Survey
19/10/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
19/10/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Retail Sales
19/10/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Account
19/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
19/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
19/10/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
19/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
19/10/2023	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
19/10/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
19/10/2023	1600/1200			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
19/10/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
19/10/2023	1720/1320			US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
19/10/2023	2000/1600			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
19/10/2023	2130/1730			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
19/10/2023	2240/1840			US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
20/10/2023	2301/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
20/10/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/10/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
20/10/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
20/10/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
20/10/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
20/10/2023	1300/0900			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
20/10/2023	1615/1215			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester