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The week ahead sees focus shift towards UK and Canadian CPI, following the US September beat. German, UK and Eurozone confidence indicators will also be of note, whereby no silver linings are on the cards.


Canada Business Outlook Survey: The Q3 results for the BoC Business Outlooks Survey will likely see weaker growth expectations. Business optimism remained robust at 4.85 in Q2 2022, largely in line with Q1 levels despite increased uncertainty regarding the global economic environment.

Q3 has seen inflationary pressures ease off the June peak, however renewed concerns are emerging regarding rising interest rates and the Q3 report will incorporate the surge in recessionary fears. The future sales index is closely watched whereby a third consecutive quarter of negative future sales implies slowing growth expectations are prevalent. Also worth watching will be any major upwards revisions to inflation expectations.


China GDP: A strong +3.4% q/q rebound is forecasted for China in Q3, following the -2.6% q/q contraction recorded in Q2. Looking into year-end, increasing interest rates in major economies will continue to tighten global financial conditions. This will likely see Chinese exports weaken as global demand softens due to pessimistic growth outlooks.

Germany ZEW Survey: Another gloomy report is due from the ZEW regarding October economic outlooks. The economic expectations indicator is likely to see a fresh record low around the -69-mark, whilst the current situation assessment flirts with initial pandemic lows. Inflationary pressures are choking demand and energy shortage concerns have seen energy-intensive industrial production cut back. A Q3 GDP contraction is largely set to kick off the winter recession.

US Industrial Production: US industrial production is anticipated to have all but stalled in September, with consensus eyeing a modest +0.1% m/m increase following August’s -0.2% m/m contraction. Slowing manufacturing output will likely hamper overall IP levels, as flagged by the ISM PMI which highlighted contracting new orders. The robust petroleum sector will likely bolster losses elsewhere.


UK Inflation Report: Little respite is expected in September inflation data. This report precedes the introduction of the energy relief package in October, which should stem headline inflation. CPI is expected to have accelerated by +0.4% m/m (vs +0.5% in Aug), with annualised prints to have ticked up 0.1pp to +10.0% y/y and core to +6.4% y/y.

This is a fresh record high on the core reading, which continues to make for uncomfortable news for the BOE as they grapple with stemming price growth amidst destabilised financial markets. The BOE’s September report sees peak inflation around 11% in October and markets have nearly fully priced a 100bp hike for the November 3 meet.

Eurozone Final CPI: Despite some downside revisions to Spanish data, other national HICP prints were largely in line with flash estimates. As such, the eurozone final inflation print for September will likely be unchanged at a record high 10.0%, up 0.9pp from August and having accelerated by 1.2% m/m alone.

Canada CPI: Canadian CPI on the other hand should see further relief in September, seen edging down by 0.4pp to +6.6% y/y in the third successive month of cooling headline price pressures. CPI is expected to have stalled at 0.0% m/m, following the -0.3% m/m contraction in August.

The BOC is eyeing a slower 50bp hike towards the end of the month, however upside surprises would see 75bp put back on the table. Future markets are already betting on the latter.


France Manufacturing Sentiment: French manufacturing outlooks will likely decline for the fourth consecutive month, as production outlooks weaken amidst increased economic uncertainty for the bloc. The August IP surprise boost from the automotive sector will likely be unable to keep production buoyant.

Turkey Central Bank Decision: Despite inflation continuing to surge above 80% and 12-month inflation expectations seeing a renewed uptick, the CBRT will not be looking to hike rates. The politically-influenced Bank continues to apply a heterodox approach to rates introduction of a range of macroprudential measures. These tactics remain unlikely to curb CPI which has accelerated for 16 consecutive months.

Surprise cuts in the repo rate are becoming less of a surprise, following two 100bp cuts in each of the last meetings. No change to a 75bp or 100bp cut from 12.00% are all viable outcomes for the meeting.


UK GfK Consumer Confidence: A three-point slide in consumer confidence to a fresh low of -52 is the median estimate for the UK’s GfK survey. Disposable incomes are feeling the squeeze of inflation remaining around 10% in October. Despite receiving relief on energy bills, the political turmoil surrounding the “Growth Plan” will drive sentiment lower.

UK Retail Trade: September UK retail sales will again reflect waning demand as purse strings tighten. Sales are forecasted to contract across the board, albeit marginally less than in August. A -0.3% m/m and -5.0% y/y fall is pencilled in.

Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence: The prelim estimate for October euro area consumer confidence is expected to tick down to a fresh record low of -30.0.

Soaring inflation reaching double-digits in September alongside pessimistic outlooks and concerns regarding the neighbouring Ukraine war has generated relentless economic uncertainty. This paints a pessimistic picture for the ECB as they continue to hike into a recession.

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19/10/20220600/0700***UK Consumer inflation report
19/10/20220600/0700***UK Producer Prices
19/10/20220830/0930*UK ONS House Price Index
19/10/20220900/1100***EU HICP (f)
19/10/20220900/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
19/10/20220900/1100**EU Construction Production
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20/10/20220030/1130***AU Labor force survey
20/10/20220600/0800**DE PPI
20/10/20220645/0845**FR Manufacturing Sentiment
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20/10/20221100/0700*TR Turkey Benchmark Rate
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21/10/20222301/0001**UK Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
21/10/20220600/0700***UK Retail Sales
21/10/20220600/0700***UK Public Sector Finances
21/10/20220600/0800**SE Unemployment
21/10/20221230/0830**CA Retail Trade
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