MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: UK & Canada CPI Due

Monday

Canada Business Outlook Survey: The Q3 results for the BoC Business Outlooks Survey will likely see weaker growth expectations. Business optimism remained robust at 4.85 in Q2 2022, largely in line with Q1 levels despite increased uncertainty regarding the global economic environment.

Q3 has seen inflationary pressures ease off the June peak, however renewed concerns are emerging regarding rising interest rates and the Q3 report will incorporate the surge in recessionary fears. The future sales index is closely watched whereby a third consecutive quarter of negative future sales implies slowing growth expectations are prevalent. Also worth watching will be any major upwards revisions to inflation expectations.

Tuesday

China GDP: A strong +3.4% q/q rebound is forecasted for China in Q3, following the -2.6% q/q contraction recorded in Q2. Looking into year-end, increasing interest rates in major economies will continue to tighten global financial conditions. This will likely see Chinese exports weaken as global demand softens due to pessimistic growth outlooks.

Germany ZEW Survey: Another gloomy report is due from the ZEW regarding October economic outlooks. The economic expectations indicator is likely to see a fresh record low around the -69-mark, whilst the current situation assessment flirts with initial pandemic lows. Inflationary pressures are choking demand and energy shortage concerns have seen energy-intensive industrial production cut back. A Q3 GDP contraction is largely set to kick off the winter recession.

US Industrial Production: US industrial production is anticipated to have all but stalled in September, with consensus eyeing a modest +0.1% m/m increase following August’s -0.2% m/m contraction. Slowing manufacturing output will likely hamper overall IP levels, as flagged by the ISM PMI which highlighted contracting new orders. The robust petroleum sector will likely bolster losses elsewhere.

Wednesday

UK Inflation Report: Little respite is expected in September inflation data. This report precedes the introduction of the energy relief package in October, which should stem headline inflation. CPI is expected to have accelerated by +0.4% m/m (vs +0.5% in Aug), with annualised prints to have ticked up 0.1pp to +10.0% y/y and core to +6.4% y/y.

This is a fresh record high on the core reading, which continues to make for uncomfortable news for the BOE as they grapple with stemming price growth amidst destabilised financial markets. The BOE’s September report sees peak inflation around 11% in October and markets have nearly fully priced a 100bp hike for the November 3 meet.

Eurozone Final CPI: Despite some downside revisions to Spanish data, other national HICP prints were largely in line with flash estimates. As such, the eurozone final inflation print for September will likely be unchanged at a record high 10.0%, up 0.9pp from August and having accelerated by 1.2% m/m alone.

Canada CPI: Canadian CPI on the other hand should see further relief in September, seen edging down by 0.4pp to +6.6% y/y in the third successive month of cooling headline price pressures. CPI is expected to have stalled at 0.0% m/m, following the -0.3% m/m contraction in August.

The BOC is eyeing a slower 50bp hike towards the end of the month, however upside surprises would see 75bp put back on the table. Future markets are already betting on the latter.

Thursday

France Manufacturing Sentiment: French manufacturing outlooks will likely decline for the fourth consecutive month, as production outlooks weaken amidst increased economic uncertainty for the bloc. The August IP surprise boost from the automotive sector will likely be unable to keep production buoyant.

Turkey Central Bank Decision: Despite inflation continuing to surge above 80% and 12-month inflation expectations seeing a renewed uptick, the CBRT will not be looking to hike rates. The politically-influenced Bank continues to apply a heterodox approach to rates introduction of a range of macroprudential measures. These tactics remain unlikely to curb CPI which has accelerated for 16 consecutive months.

Surprise cuts in the repo rate are becoming less of a surprise, following two 100bp cuts in each of the last meetings. No change to a 75bp or 100bp cut from 12.00% are all viable outcomes for the meeting.

Friday

UK GfK Consumer Confidence: A three-point slide in consumer confidence to a fresh low of -52 is the median estimate for the UK’s GfK survey. Disposable incomes are feeling the squeeze of inflation remaining around 10% in October. Despite receiving relief on energy bills, the political turmoil surrounding the “Growth Plan” will drive sentiment lower.

UK Retail Trade: September UK retail sales will again reflect waning demand as purse strings tighten. Sales are forecasted to contract across the board, albeit marginally less than in August. A -0.3% m/m and -5.0% y/y fall is pencilled in.

Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence: The prelim estimate for October euro area consumer confidence is expected to tick down to a fresh record low of -30.0.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
17/10/2022	2301/0001	*		UK	Rightmove House Prices Index
17/10/2022	0800/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
17/10/2022	0800/1000			EU	ECB de Guindos Speaks on Euro Anniversary
17/10/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
17/10/2022	1430/1030	**		CA	BOC Business Outlook Survey
17/10/2022	1500/1700			EU	ECB Lane at Bocconi Uni & Deutsche Bank Roundtable
17/10/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
17/10/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
17/10/2022	2000/1600			CA	BOC Deputy Rogers panel talk at Toronto Centre
18/10/2022	0030/1130			AU	RBA policy meeting minutes
18/10/2022	0200/1000	***		CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
18/10/2022	0200/1000	***		CN	Retail Sales
18/10/2022	0200/1000	***		CN	Industrial Output
18/10/2022	0200/1000	**		CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate
18/10/2022	0200/1000	***		CN	GDP
18/10/2022	0800/1000			IT	Trade Balance
18/10/2022	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
18/10/2022	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
18/10/2022	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
18/10/2022	1215/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
18/10/2022	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
18/10/2022	1315/0915	***		US	Industrial Production
18/10/2022	1400/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
18/10/2022	1600/1800			EU	ECB Schnabel Alumni Event at Uni Mannheim
18/10/2022	1800/1400			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
18/10/2022	2000/1600	**		US	TICS
18/10/2022	2130/1730			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
19/10/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
19/10/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
19/10/2022	0830/0930	*		UK	ONS House Price Index
19/10/2022	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
19/10/2022	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
19/10/2022	0900/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
19/10/2022	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
19/10/2022	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
19/10/2022	1230/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
19/10/2022	1230/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
19/10/2022	1430/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
19/10/2022	1500/1600			UK	BOE Mann Panels Webinar on ERM Crisis
19/10/2022	1700/1300			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
19/10/2022	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
19/10/2022	1800/1400			US	Fed Beige Book
19/10/2022	2230/1830			US	St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
19/10/2022	2230/1830			US	Chicago Fed's Charles Evans
20/10/2022	0030/1130	***		AU	Labor force survey
20/10/2022	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/10/2022	0645/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
20/10/2022	0720/0320			ID	Bank of Indonesia Rate Decision
20/10/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Account
20/10/2022	1100/0700	*		TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
20/10/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
20/10/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
20/10/2022	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
20/10/2022	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
20/10/2022	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
20/10/2022	1600/1200			US	Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker
20/10/2022	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
20/10/2022	1730/1330			US	Fed Governor Philip Jefferson
20/10/2022	1745/1345			US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
20/10/2022	1805/1405			US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
21/10/2022	2301/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
21/10/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
21/10/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
21/10/2022	0600/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
21/10/2022	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
21/10/2022	1400/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
22/10/2022	0900/1100			EU	ECB Panetta at Festa dell'ottimismo