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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI Insight: AUD/NZD FX - Cyclical Drivers Aren't Turning Around Yet
- The AUD/NZD cross has stabilized somewhat in the past session around the 1.0900 level, but it remains below all key simple MAs and EMAs. We are now down over 5% from late September highs.
- Still, cyclical drivers that have correlated well with the AUD/NZD cross this year, like swap differentials and the relative terms of trade backdrop, aren't pointing to a turnaround in sentiment for the cross yet. The relative central bank pricing outlook also remains skewed in NZD's favor, underpinned by a backdrop of relative data surprises in NZD's favor.
- China exiting its Covid-zero stance would arguably boost AU's commodity prices more than NZ's basket. This is a risk to be mindful of, although official rhetoric from China hasn't suggested a near term change is imminent. The other factor that could stabilize the cross is renewed global equity market weakness. Higher levels in the cross have coincided with weaker global equities this year, particular in September/early October. This fits with sensitivity to global risk periods for the two currencies as measured by their respective current account balances.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.