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MNI: Japan's Q4 GDP To See First Gain In Two Quarters-Analysts

TOKYO (MNI)

Japan's economy likely expanded for the first time in two quarters over October-December thanks to a rebound in private consumption and capital investment and easing supply-chain restrictions, economists predicted.

Economists see preliminary Q4 GDP up 1.5% on quarter, or 5.9% annualised, following a drop in the third quarter. Forecasts ranged from +1.1% to +1.8% q/q, or +4.7% to +7.4% at an annualised pace.

See: MNI DATA SURVEY: Japan Preliminary GDP for October-December.

LOOKING AHEAD TO Q1

Going forward, economists expect Japan’s economy to slow in the first quarter as the government decided to extend its COVID-19 quasi-state of emergency in 34 out of 47 prefectures amid a surge in Omicron cases, see: MNI BRIEF: IMF Ups Japan GDP View On Export Recovery, Stimulus.

The average economist forecast for Q1 GDP growth is annualised at +5.05%, according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 36 economists by the Japan Center for Economic Research conducted from Dec. 24 to Jan. 7.

The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for the October-December quarter at 0850 JST on Tuesday, Feb. 15 (2350 GMT on Monday, Feb. 14).

MNI Tokyo Bureau | +81 90-2175-0040 | hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com
MNI Tokyo Bureau | +81 90-2175-0040 | hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com

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