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MNI DATA SURVEY: Japan Preliminary GDP for October-December

TOKYO (MNI)

The following are the median forecasts for Japan's preliminary gross domestic product for the October-December quarter provided by economists surveyed by MNI.

Tuesday, Feb. 15, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Monday, Feb.14): The Cabinet Office releases preliminary Q4 GDP. The median forecasts are in quarter-on-quarter percentage changes, except for the contributions of private inventories and net exports, which are in percentage points.

DataMedianPrevious
GDP q/q1.5-0.9
GDP Annualized5.9-3.6
Consumption2.3-1.3
Capex0.8-2.3
Public Investment-2.8-2.0
Private Inventories0.10.1
Net Exports0.30.0
GDP
% Q/Q% Annualised
Median Forecast1.55.9
High Forecast1.87.4
Low Forecast1.14.7
Previous0.51.9
Standard Deviation0.20.8
No. of Responses88
Daiwa Institute of Research1.14.7
Mizuho Research & Technologies1.25.0
Dai-ichi Life Research Institute1.45.7
Mitsubishi UFJ R & C1.45.8
SMBC Nikko1.56.0
Mitsubishi Research1.56.2
Mitsui Sumitomo DS AM1.66.5
Japan Research1.87.4
ConsumptionCapexPublic Works
% Q/Q% Q/Q% Q/Q
Median Forecast2.30.8-2.7
High Forecast2.71.80.4
Low Forecast2.0-0.2-4.0
Previous0.92.3-1.7
Standard Deviation0.30.71.1
No. of Responses888
Daiwa Institute of Research2.00.7-2.8
Mizuho Research & Technologies2.21.6-4.0
Dai-ichi Life Research Institute2.40.5-3.1
Mitsubishi UFJ R & C2.00.8-2.6
SMBC Nikko2.7-0.2-2.5
Mitsubishi Research2.21.1-2.5
Mitsui Sumitomo DS AM2.60.1-3.6
Japan Research2.41.8-0.4
Private InventoriesNet Export
% Point Contribution% Point Contribution
Median Forecast0.10.3
High Forecast0.30.6
Low Forecast-0.20.0
Previous-0.3-0.3
Standard Deviation0.10.2
No. of Responses88
Daiwa Institute of Research0.10.1
Mizuho Research & Technologies-0.20.6
Dai-ichi Life Research Institute0.00.3
Mitsubishi UFJ R & C0.00.5
SMBC Nikko0.10.3
Mitsubishi Research0.10.3
Mitsui Sumitomo DS AM0.30.0
Japan Research0.00.1
MNI Tokyo Bureau | +81 90-2175-0040 | hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com
MNI Tokyo Bureau | +81 90-2175-0040 | hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com

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