Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The NBP are universally expected to keep monetary policy settings unchanged
- The focus will be on any hints on the interest-rate outlook and/or shifts in the MPC's overall stance
- March economic forecasts will provide the next key signal for NBP watchers
MNI NBP Preview - February 23.pdf
The National Bank of Poland are universally expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, extending their streak of stand-pat decisions, the last rate hike being delivered in September 2022. The dovish wing still holds a commanding majority in the Monetary Policy Council and is set to outvote the three hawkish dissenters (Tyrowicz, Kotecki, Litwiniuk). The focus will be on the press conference with Governor Adam Glapinski, with market participants on the lookout for any fresh hints on the interest-rate outlook.
Fig. 1: The MPC are looking for evidence of a sustainable disinflationary trend
Economic data releases since the January meeting of the MPC have been broadly supportive of the central bank’s current tack, corroborating the assessment that restrictive monetary policy gradually helps curb acute price pressures. Consumer inflation decelerated more than expected to +16.6% in December and while a rebound is widely expected in Q1, the consensus view is that we should see a more sustainable disinflation from March/April. At the same time, December data showed that wage growth slowed more than projected, while retail sales and industrial output printed below expected levels, suggesting that economic activity was losing steam.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.