MNI NBP Preview - March 2023: Rhetoric And Forecasts To Steal Limelight

Executive Summary:

• The NBP are universally expected to keep monetary policy settings unchanged this week
• The highlight will be the publication of the central bank's fresh macroeconomic projection
• Some have speculated that Governor Glapinski might verbally formalise ending the rate-hike cycle
  

MNI NBP Preview - March 23.pdf

The latest rounds of macroeconomic data and central bank communications provided no hints of any imminent monetary policy action by the National Bank of Poland, with universal consensus calling for no change to interest rates this week. This turns the spotlight on the subsequent press conference with Governor Adam Glapinski and the new macroeconomic projection, with market participants on the lookout for fresh clues on the outlook for Poland’s monetary policy.

This may be the NBP’s most closely watched monetary policy meeting since the central bank pressed pause on its rate-hike cycle, due to the release of the updated forecast which will inform rate decisions going forward. Most expect the NBP to unveil dovish forecast revisions, which has supported speculation that Governor Glapinski could formally end the tightening cycle this week. We think that it is too early for the NBP to declare that the tightening cycle is over as core inflation remains sticky.