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MNI Norges Bank Review - January 2023: First to Hike, First to Pause

Executive Summary:

  • Bank held rates unchanged, confirming a return to gradualism
  • March namechecked as the next most likely hike
  • Softer language on rates could mean 3.00% is the peak of the cycle
Full review including summary of sell-side views:

MNINBRevJan23.pdf

The Norges Bank kept the deposit rate unchanged at 2.75%, alongside majority expectations. The decision marks the first time since the accelerated pace of tightening last year that the bank have declined to hike rates. The bank similarly confirmed a return to gradualism for monetary policy, acknowledging that the inflation backdrop necessitates further tightening, albeit it at a slower pace.

This sets up the Norges Bank for March’s meeting, at which they will likely add a further 25bps, but stop short of earmarking another hike over the coming quarter. What should follow is a more prolonged period of unchanged policy, with previous rate hikes continuing to work their way through to increasingly sensitive households.

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