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MNI Norges Bank Review - May 2023: NOK Dictating Play

MNI Norges Bank Review - January 2023: First to Hike, First to Pause
MNI NORGES WATCH: Well-Flagged 25Bp Hike Seen, More On The Way

Executive Summary:

  • Bank raised rate by 25bps to 3.25%, as expected
  • June name-checked as next most likely hike
  • Statement singles out NOK as threat to future inflation profile, raising potential peak rate
Full review document including summary of sell-side views here:


Norges Bank provided few surprises in carrying out a well-telegraphed 25bps hike to 3.25%, and signalled further tightening to come in June. This played into the policy path projections laid out in March, which priced a strong chance of 3.75% rates by year-end.

Nonetheless, NOK weakness continues to run beyond their forecast, in a move the governor described as “difficult to explain”. This poses upside risks to the rate path and increases the likelihood of a 4.00% peak rate.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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