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Free AccessMNI POLICY: BOC Holds Rate 1.75%, Drops Phrase About Stimulus>
By Greg Quinn and Anahita Alinejad
OTTAWA (MNI) - The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at
1.75% while dropping language about that level providing stimulus,
saying global trade fights will test the economy's resilience.
Inflation will remain close to a 2% target through the next two
years and output will grow enough to shrink already modest slack in the
economy, policy makers said Wednesday from Ottawa. The global outlook
has also weakened further since July and and Canada hasn't been "immune"
to the damage.
"All things considered, Governing Council judges it appropriate to
maintain the current level of the overnight rate target,'' the one-page
decision said, a shift from the Sept. 4 phrase "the curent degree of
monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate."
"In considering the appropriate path for monetary policy, the Bank
will be monitoring the extent to which the global slowdown spreads
beyond manufacturing and investment," the BOC said Wednesday. "In this
context, it will pay close attention to the sources of resilience in the
Canadian economy - notably consumer spending and housing activity - as
well as to fiscal policy developments."
Governor Stephen Poloz is poised to take on the highest policy rate
in the G7 with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to cut this afternoon,
bringing the risk of a surge in Canada's dollar that would further
burden exporters. Poloz has resisted joining his global peers with
stimulus this year by citing domestic strength while adding starker
warnings on trade.
The BOC boosted its 2019 growth forecast to 1.5% from a July
estimate of 1.3% on improvements in net exports and housing being fed by
low mortgage rates. The expansion quickens to 1.7% next year and 1.8% in
2021, though those rates are slower than July estimates of 1.9% and
2%, respectively.
Another reason Canada will come even closer to full output is weak
business investment that curbs how fast the economy can run before
inflation pressure creeps in.
Inflation risks are "roughly balanced" when trade uncertainty
is factored out, the BOC said.
In another contrast with other central banks, the BOC said trade
policy risks are two-sided but tilted to the downside, a nod to the
potential for tariffs to boost inflation and slow economic growth.
Still, the BOC's forecast added a new risk of global disinflation
citing persistently weak price pressure in many countries.
Inflation will be 2% this year, higher than a prior estimate of
1.8%, the BOC said. Price gains slow to 1.8% next year in part because
of a temporary dip in energy prices, and return to 2% in 2021.
The rate decision was consistent with the MNI economist median for
no change.
--MNI Ottawa Bureau, +1-613-314-9647, greg.quinn@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$C$$$,MACDS$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.