MNI POLICY: BOJ Encouraged By Oct Export Rise, Caution Remains

     TOKYO (MNI) - Bank of Japan officials are somewhat relieved exports

rebounded in October after a weak third quarter, but their outlook remains

cautious as global trade frictions linger.

     They are now focused on how Japan's exports evolve this month and next, as

they pay attention to quarter-on-quarter moves to determine the underlying

trend.

     The BOJ board will likely maintain the view that exports are on an uptrend

at the December 19-20 policy-setting meeting.

     Japan's exports rose 8.2% on year in October, bouncing back from

September's 1.3% fall for the  the first y/y rise in two months. The increase

was led by motor vehicles, motors and semiconductors.

     The next key piece of data is the BOJ's real trade indexes for October,

with BOJ officials now closely watching whether Japan's real export index

returns to the previous uptrend seen before the Q3 drop.

     The data is due out at 1400JST (0500GMT) Monday. The real export index

posted the first m/m drop in three months in September, down 5.5% following a

2.2% gain in August.

     The real export index for the third quarter fell 1.9% on quarter for the

first drop since the first quarter of 2016.

--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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