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MNI POLICY: GCEE Cuts German 2020 GDP Outlook, Sees 6.5% Fall
By Luke Heighton
FRANKFURT (MNI) - Germany's economy will decline by 6.5% this year as a
result of the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to contain it, the German Council
of Economic Experts (GCEE) said Tuesday -- 1.1 percentage points lower compared
to its March projections.
However, following a sharp contraction in H1 2020, the German economy
should begin to pick up again in H2, the Council said, with 4.9% growth expected
through the July to December period -- supporting the theory that Germany will
experience a "pronounced V"-shape recovery.
GDP is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels before 2022, with
unemployment continuing to rise in 2020 before beginning to decline in 2021 from
6.1%. Euro area real GDP is expected to fall by 8.5% this year, before growing
by 6.2% in 2021, the Council said. Globally, the outlook remains subject to
considerable uncertainty.
Tuesday's projections update those produced by the GCEE in a special March
report into the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which anticipated
a 5.4% contraction in 2020 before returning to 4.9% growth in 2021.
--RECOVERY
"Worldwide," the Council reported, "the pandemic has spread more strongly
than initially expected and more extensive containment measures have been taken,
some of which are still in place. However, the reduction in the number of new
infections and the gradual easing of health policy interventions in Germany and
of important trading partners will create the basis for a recovery later this
year. In addition, the adopted stabilisation measures and economic policy
stimuli are expected to have a positive effect."
"The coronavirus pandemic is forecast to cause the worst economic downturn
since the Federal Republic of Germany was founded," German Council of Economic
Experts chairman Lars Feld said. "However, we expect a recovery to set in from
summer onwards."
--MNI Frankfurt Bureau; +49-69-720-146; email: luke.heighton@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$E$$$,M$G$$$,M$X$$$,MI$$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.