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Executive Summary

Brazil holds a general election on Sunday October 2 to vote for the country’s next president, national congress, state governors, and state legislative assemblies. The presidential election has been the market focus leading up to the election and, although the election remains competitive, former president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, who has sustained a double-digit polling advantage over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro for much of 2022, is expected to retake office for a third term.

  • The most likely outcome on Sunday is that neither Lula nor Bolsonaro achieves the required 50% vote share for victory in the first round of voting. If a majority is not achieved, then a second-round run-off will take place on October 30. The new president will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.
  • Voting in Brazil is compulsory which means the second round of voting can see dramatic shifts in voting dynamics. Enforcement, however, is lax and there can be a tendency to overstate the influence of compulsory voting. In 2018, over 20% of the electorate did not participate in voting.
  • The big question for election day is whether Bolsonaro will recognise the election result, should Lula win. Bolsonaro has oscillated between promising a peaceful transfer of power and laying the groundwork for challenging the result.

Full PDF article attached below:

MNI Political Risk Analysis - Brazil First Round Election Preview.pdf

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