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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Iowa Caucuses Preview

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  • The first voting of the 2024 presidential election kicks-off with the Iowa caucuses on Monday, January 15. At stake: 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this summer.
  • Polling ahead of the caucuses points towards a heavy Trump victory with recent polls consistently giving Trump a 30%+ lead. Haley and DeSantis are polling in distant second and third place respectively. With that in mind, the focus on Monday will be the vote share and how many delegates the second-place candidate can secure.
  • Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has staked much of his campaign on Iowa. There is some speculation that DeSantis may withdraw from the race if he returns fewer delegates than former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Should Haley overperform on Monday, it would keep her narrow track to winning the nomination alive. A strong performance by Trump may signal an uncompetitive national primary.
  • A record-breaking cold snap could also impact turnout and the basic operational functions of the caucuses. According to various forecasts, it could be coldest Caucus Day ever with an "arctic cold front" on its way to the state.
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