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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Norwegian voters go to the polls on 13 September to elect a new parliament or 'Storting', with incumbent Prime Minister Erna Solberg seeking a third consecutive term in office for her centre-right Conservatives, while the main opposition centre-left Labour Party looks to form a left-leaning government. In this preview we offer a short primer on Norway's electoral system and parties, analysis of opinion polling trends in the run-up to the vote, and some potential post-election scenarios with assigned probabilities.
Main Takeaways:
- Prime Minister Erna Solberg's government looks to be on the way out, with the Labour Party and its centre-left/left-wing allies holding a commanding lead in most pre-election opinion polls.
- As is usually the case in Norwegian elections, potentially lengthy coalition talks will be required after the vote to form a majority government. The 'Red Bloc' of the Labour Party, the agrarian Centre Party, and the left-wing Socialist Left Party may be able to secure a majority on their own or could require outside support from other leftist parties.
- Should Labour party leader Jonas Gahr Støre become prime minister, there will likely be a deterioration in EU-Norway relations. Both of Labour's likely coalition allies have voiced support for reducing payments to the EU (Socialist Left Party) or leaving the EEA and signing bilateral agreements with the EU in a Swiss-style arrangement (Centre Party).
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Norway Election Preview.pdf
Chart 1. Norwegian Storting at Dissolution, Seats
Chart 1. Norwegian Storting at Dissolution, SeatsSource: stortinget.no, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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