MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-South Korea Election Preview

South Korea holds its legislative election on 10 April with all 300 seats in the National Assembly up for grabs. In this preview we outline how the elections will take place, the main parties and alliances involved, provide a chartpack of the latest opinion polling, offer scenario analysis with assigned probabilities of outcomes, highlight analyst views on the vote, and give a short view on the potential financial market impact of the election.

At the last legislative election in 2020 the liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) – which at that time held the presidency under Moon Jae-in – won a majority, ousting the conservative United Future Party (now the People Power Party of President Yoon Suk-yeol). With Yoon winning the presidency in 2022 the country re-entered a period of split power, with different parties in control of the executive and legislature.

While the election is ostensibly about individuals electing their representatives, the campaign has come to be seen as a referendum on the popularity of Yoon as well as the main opposition DPK leader Lee Jae-myung. Each has accused the other of corruption, with state prosecutors indicting Lee on charges of bribery. The toxic political rancour has seen the DPK-controlled National Assembly refuse to confirm Yoon’s Cabinet nominees, while Yoon has vetoed legislation passed by the DPK-controlled parliament, all contributing to political paralysis and rising public antipathy towards both main parties.Full article PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-SouthKoreaElectionPreview.pdf