MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 16-02-22

Executive Summary:

• The Ukraine crisis is again the focus of global markets. Yesterday saw one of the most intense days of diplomacy so far with several positive developments emerging from high level meetings. President Biden gave a forceful speech at a hastily arranged White House address. He said: 'The US has put forward concrete proposals to improve security concerns. These will apply to all parties. Russia and NATO alike. New arms control measures. New transparency measures. New strategic stability measures.'
• Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Brussels meeting with European leaders and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg. Austin has the unenviable task of trying to guide the Western response. The US will be irritated by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s perceived concession on NATO membership, and it is likely there will be back-peddling today. Putin has already requested a written statement from NATO on Ukraine’s neutral status. This is highly unlikely.
• Republican Senators on the Senate Banking Committee blocked voting on Biden’s Federal Reserve nominees. On the Senate floor Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) demanded that Biden withdraw the nomination of Bloom Raskin to the position of Vice Chair for Supervision accusing Bloom Raskin of planning to turn the Fed into a radical left activist post.
• Congressional negotiators are making headway in government spending talks. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell both insist there won’t be a government shutdown. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) has dropped her block on the continuing resolution after receiving written assurance that the federal government will not be supplying crack pipes to drug addicts.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 16-02-22.pdf