MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 21-02-22

Executive Summary:

Congress is out of session and foreign policy is in focus again.

• As the Ukraine crisis continues to intensify the US has become increasingly convinced that Russia has made the decision to invade Ukraine. Of particular concern is the Russian failure to deliver on its promise to demobilise 30,000 troops troops from Belarus on February 20.
• There are two key meetings scheduled for this week: One between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday in Finland or Switzerland followed by a tentatively scheduled summit between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden. Both meetings are contingent on Russia not invading Ukraine. Blinken said: ‘If Russia doesn’t invade I’ll be there.’
• Republicans, led by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), have attacked the Biden Administration's approach to the crisis. Cruz: ‘…Joe Biden formally waived sanctions on Russia, on Putin, and gave the green light to build Nord Stream 2. That is why we have over 100,000 troops and Russian tanks on the border of Ukraine preparing to invade. That’s where we are—on the brink of war in Europe.’
• Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby responded: ‘If you punish somebody for something they haven't done yet, then they might as well just go ahead and do it. So, we're holding that in abeyance, and we’re hoping that that could affect the calculus of Mr. Putin.’
• Today's Poll of the Day presents a breakdown the generic congressional ballot. The House is becoming increasingly difficult to predict and pollsters diverge from +5 for Democrats to +13 for Republicans.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 21-02-22 .pdf