MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 22-03-22

Executive Summary:

• Western intelligence continues to believe that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is failing to achieve objectives.
• US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield restated that the Biden administration does not support Poland’s peacekeeping-mission proposal for Ukraine. Thomas-Greenfield: ‘The president has been very clear that we will not put American troops on the ground in Ukraine. We don't want to escalate this into a war with the United States.’
• The prospect of a NATO peacekeeping force looks likely to follow a narrative similar to the no-fly zone and transfer of fighter planes. The White House, the Pentagon, and NATO leadership will warn of the risk associated with NATO forces coming into direct conflict with Russian troops. Domestic lawmakers and political pundits will likely push leaders for more positive engagement, especially in Poland, a country which has long warned of Russian aggression and is now shouldering the burden of the refugee crisis.
• The White House has distributed a fact sheet advising private companies who operate critical infrastructure to harden cyber security amid ‘evolving intelligence’ suggesting that Russia may be preparing for cyber-attacks on the US.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has warned that relations between Moscow and the US could be 'completely severed' due to President Biden's descriptions of Russian President Vladimir Putin as ‘war criminal’, a ‘thug’, and ‘murderous dictator.’
• The Biden administration is still tentatively engaging in a pivot back to Saudi Arabia. The US has reportedly transferred a significant number of Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia in the past several weeks for defence against drone and missile attacks from Yemen.
• The Senate questioning of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson will begin today. Questioning will last for two days and allow senators to subject the SCOTUS nominee to around 20 hours of questions.
• Negotiations to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action are likely to restart this week after the conclusion of the Iranian New Year Public holiday. The key issue of the week is the US terrorism designation for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 22-03-22 .pdf