MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 24-05-22

Executive Summary:

• The second Quad summit took place today in Tokyo, Japan. Quad leaders issued a thinly veiled criticism of China in a joint statement: ‘We strongly oppose any coercive, provocative or unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo and increase tensions in the area, such as the militarization of disputed features...'
• Another batch of midterm primaries are taking place today in Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia today. The GOP Georgia gubernatorial primary will see the culmination of a bitter, months long, attempt from former president Donald Trump to unseat incumbent Gov Brian Kemp (R-GA). Trump's candidate, David Purdue is trailing in the polls and a defeat here could undermine Trump's claim to the title 'GOP kingmaker'.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is preparing for a second attempt at unveiling the Biden Administration’s China strategy on Thursday as commentators continue unpicking President Biden's Taiwan remarks. Biden appeared to overrule the official US position of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan for the third time of his presidency, and for the third time, the White House walked back the remarks.
• The Biden administration is mediating the transfer of two strategically important islands in the Red Sea from Egypt to Saudi Arabia. The negotiations also include Israel and could be a first step on the road to the normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a significant foreign policy achievement for the Biden administration, if successful.
• Poll of the Day: Nearly 50% of Indians believe that membership in the Quad alliance will increase the chance of conflict in the region.

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 24-05-22 .pdf