MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 28-02-22

Executive Summary:

• The war in Ukraine has entered its fifth day. The weekend saw another escalation as Russian President Vladimir Putin placed the country’s nuclear arsenal on special alert. The Ukrainian resistance continues to be more robust than expected and although Russian forces are closing in, Kyiv remains under Ukrainian control. The country’s second city Kharkiv reports repelling a Russian offensive, air defences remain operational, and intelligence reports suggest that supply lines are insufficiently supporting the Russian offensive.
• The Republican Party is increasingly divided over Ukraine and former President Donald Trump has yet to roll back on comments which appeared to praise Putin. Senator Chris Coons (D-DE) said: ‘Can you imagine a former president complimenting Osama bin Laden the day after 9/11?’
• The controversy hasn’t affected the former president’s popularity. An Conservative Political Action Conference’s (CPAC) presidential poll has shown Trump as the strong favourite for the 2024 GOP nomination.
• President Biden is to deliver his first State of the Union address on Tuesday. The address comes as Joe Biden’s approval rating has fallen to a record low of 37 percent according to new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
• The challenge for Biden will be convincing the American people to tolerate more domestic hardship brought by support of Ukraine at a time when inflation is at its highest point in four decades.
• At the same time, Biden will have to reinvigorate the stalled Democratic legislative agenda. Biden is likely to again talk up the prospects of Build Back Better and urge the importance of the China Competitiveness Bill as vital legislation to combat an increasingly dangerous global political risk environment.

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 28-02-22 .pdf