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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-US Election Analyst Views Round-Up
In this article we accumulate the views and expectations of 14 different analysts across financial services regarding the November 3 US presidential election. Below is a table with the various analysts and their expected election outcomes (if offered), while selected comments regarding the election from most outlets continue through the article.
Analyst | Outcome | What They Said |
Berenberg | Blue wave | The US elections may thus yield three plausible outcomes: Biden wins the presidency (60% probability in our view) with or without a Democratic majority in the Senate (scenarios 1 and 2 with probabilities of 45% and 15%, respectively); or Trump stays in the White House while Congress remains divided (scenario 3 with 40% probability). |
BNP Paribas | Blue Wave | Increasing Democratic strength in national polls makes a unified government scenario where not only former Vice President Biden wins the Presidency but the Democrats also secure a majority in the Senate the single most likely of the three scenarios considered, in our view. |
Credit Agricole | Biden win | President Donald Trump is lagging behind Senator Joe Biden in national polls and in all battleground states, and the Democrats could be in a position to wrestle control of Congress from the GOP. |
Goldman Sachs | Blue wave | Public opinion polls, prediction markets, and statistical models used by news organizations imply that Democrats are likely to win control of the White House, House and Senate on November 3. |
Lloyds | Blue wave | It seems increasingly likely that the US election on 3rd November will see a change in President […] it appears most probable that the Democrats will control both the White House and Congress after 3rd November. |
MUFG | Blue wave | …our models highlight risk of a "pendulum swing" in USA national election races, for both the Presidency and the Senate on November 3rd – a "swing" that may foreshadow a large fiscal policy package introduced in early 2021. |
Nordea | Blue wave | Presently, polling clearly indicates a high probability of a blue wave scenario, […] which also remains our base case scenario. |
Pictet | Biden Pres, Rep Senate | […] our central scenario of a divided Congress, where the Democrats do not gain control of the Senate, but Biden becomes president (40% probability). |
Scotiabank | Biden Win | It appears, at this point, that Mr. Biden will defeat President Trump. |
SEB | Blue wave | We set a 70% probability of Mr Biden winning the presidency, in which case there is a high likelihood that the Democrats will also gain control of the House and the Senate. |
SocGen | No prediction, acknowledges likelihood of blue wave | […] with increasing odds of a Biden win and perhaps a Democratic sweep of Congress. |
Standard Chartered | No prediction, acknowledges likelihood of blue wave | Markets appear to be warming up to a Joe Biden presidency and Democrat control of the Senate and House of Representatives after the 3 November US elections. |
Swedbank | Blue Wave | Our scenarios are: i) Democratic clean sweep (Joe Biden + Congress) […] scenario (i) is our base case. |
Westpac | Blue Wave | Polls indicate the most likely combination is Democratic control of the White House, Senate and House, the so-called Blue Wave. |
Source: MNI
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Election Analyst Views Round-Up.pdf
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.