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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
On November 3 the United States will hold elections for the country's presidency, one-third of the seats in the Senate, the entirety of the House of Representatives, and a plethora of state and local-level offices. The election to the presidency is being billed as the most important in a generation, determining whether incumbent Republican President Donald Trump gets a second term in office, or is replaced by the vice-president to former President Barack Obama, Democrat Joe Biden.
Key Takeaways
- Democratic candidate Joe Biden is the strong favourite to become the next US president. He has held consistent leads in nationwide opinion polls, as well as in all swing states he would need to win to cross the 270 electoral college vote threshold to win the presidency.
- We at MNI ascribe a 40% probability to Biden winning the presidency and his Democratic Party also winning control of the Senate and House. The next most likely scenarios are the Democrats winning the presidency and the House, but the Republicans retaining control of the Senate, and the Republicans retaining the presidency and the Senate. Both of these scenarios are given a 25% probability of occurring.
- We note that despite the strong polling support for Biden combined with the negative impact President Trump's diagnosis and hospitalization with COVID-19 has had on the Republican campaign, a win for Trump cannot be discounted. The president's unorthodox campaigning style and fiery outbursts in the press and on social media continue to gain him significant attention, while his robust policy stance continues to appeal to a large swathe of Americans in the crucial Great Lakes, Midwestern and Deep South swing states.
- No matter the outcome of the election, some policy areas – such as the government's hardline attitude towards trade with China – are unlikely to change significantly. The major areas of difference are likely to come in the social policy arena – something that has garnered significant focus in 2020 – foreign policy and plans for taxation.
Election Scenario Matrix, Percentage Chances of Each Party/Candidate Winning Various Branches of Government
Source: MNI
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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