MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 1-7 August

All timings subject to change.

Monday 1 August:

• United States: Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) begins a multi-day visit to the Indo-Pacific region as the head of a congressional delegation. Beginning in Singapore, the trip includes visits to Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan. There is notable speculation over whether Pelosi will visit Taiwan, with the Chinese Ministry of Foreign affairs warning that China ‘will not sit by and watch’ if the speaker does visit Taipei. Comes at a time of heightened US-China tensions, which could rise further should Pelosi deviate from her public trip schedule.
• United Kingdom: The voting period of the Conservative party leadership contest begins today, with ballot packs beginning to arrive at the homes of the approximate 160k party members who will decide the next prime minister over the coming month. Betting markets continue to show Foreign Secretary Liz Truss as the odds-on favourite to win the Conservative leadership contest and become the next UK PM. The voting period closes on Friday 2 September, with the result announced Monday 5 September.
• Ukraine: First shipment of grain/corn leaves Ukraine as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed in late July. The agreement is intended to facilitate the export of grains and fertilizer from both Ukraine and Russia through the Black Sea to ease global food security concerns. The Joint Coordination Centre sits in Istanbul, and Turkish officials seen as key in keeping the deal on track. There remains significant scepticism in Kyiv and the West as to how long Russia will abide by the terms of the agreement.
• Indo-Pacific: Militaries of the US, Japan, and South Korea begin a series of exercises to detect and track the launch and trajectories of ballistic missiles. The biennial exercise labelled Pacific Dragon takes place in waters off the coast of the US state of Hawaii and continues to 14 August. Comes as the three allies close ranks with concerns that North Korea could conduct further nuclear tests or missile launches.
• Europe: Two notable energy security developments set to kick in from 1 August, with Germany set to impose a halt on its purchase of Russian coal while Hungary implements a stop on the export of fossil fuels to neighbouring states. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban declared an ‘energy emergency’ in July, with the European Commission subsequently calling the legality of the order into question given that Brussels stated that it was not notified in advance of the decision.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 1-7 August.pdf