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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 11-17 July

All timings subject to change.

Monday 11 July:

  • United Kingdom: The executive of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs meet to elect its new members and then decide on the rules for the party’s leadership contest, which will decide who succeeds outgoing PM Boris Johnson. The body is expected to announce fairly high entry criteria for prospective candidates in terms of gaining nominations from fellow MPs in order to avoid a long, drawn-out leadership contest.
  • United States:Senate returns after a two-week Independence Day recess (House returns on Tuesday). Significant legislation and activity expected. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer will not be in attendance having tested positive for COVID-19. House is set to vote on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the yearly legislation that keeps the armed services funded. Once passed, lawmakers from both the House and Senate will work on a joint, combined bill to pass. The House is also set to seek to pass two abortion bills this week, codifying a woman’s right to choose into federal law. They are unlikely to pass in the Senate, but the continued presence of the issue in the news cycle is likely only to intensify as mid-term elections approach.
  • Eurozone: Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers takes place in Brussels, starting at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400BST). Ministers due to discuss current economic climate, the budgetary situation of the eurozone, and the EU Parliament’s vote in favour of Croatia joining the single currency.
  • Germany-Russia: Flow of gas through the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany halted as part of a 10-day annual maintenance period. The pipeline has become central to German and wider European concerns about the reliability of Russian energy supplies, particularly as temperatures drop in the autumn. The issue has been exacerbated by Canada’s possession of a key turbine which has been repaired in the country. Sanctions would have made it impossible for Canada to export the part directly back to Russia, meaning Germany has to act as a go-between.
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