MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 12-18 July

All timings subject to change.

Monday 12 July:

• EU-US: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, ECB President Christine Lagarde, and Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni in Brussels. Yellen has stated that she will press the case for the EU to scrap its planned digital levy tax on internet giants such as Google and Amazon, which the US government has dismissed as discriminatory against American companies. Yellen will also take part in the Eurogroup meeting in its inclusive format (including non-EZ member states) at 1400CET (0800ET, 1300BST), with discussions to focus on pandemic recovery and banking/financial stability issues.
• US-Russia: US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate and former Secretary of State John Kerry visits Moscow for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The two are attempting to reach an agreement on climate objectives before the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, UK in November. Kerry is the first Cabinet-level official to visit Russia (three other Cabinet members are currently banned from Russia due to sanctions), following on from him being the first White House official to visit China earlier in 2021.
• United Kingdom: Prime Minister Boris Johnson due to deliver a press conference regarding COVID-19 restrictions at 1700BST (1200ET, 1800CET). Despite a significant increase in new infections in recent weeks, Johnson is expected to announce the end of almost all COVID-19 restrictions in England from 19 July. PM has argued that the UK's rapid vaccination programme has weakened the link between new cases and hospitalisations enough to allow for restrictions on group numbers and social distancing measures to end. Health Secretary Sajid Javid set to speak concurrently in the House of Commons.
• United States:Senate returns from 4 July recess with less than a month left for intense work ahead as Democratic party leaders attempt to get a deal on an infrastructure plan through, as well as major voting rights legislation. Majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has stated that he intends to take forward both the smaller bipartisan infrastructure bill (worth UD1.2trn over eight years) and a larger Democrat-only package that would require a budget resolution and passage via reconciliation. Schumer has stated his desire to hold floor votes on both issues by 6 August, when the summer recess is set to begin. The House returns from recess next week.
• South Africa:Layers for former President Jacob Zuma are set to present their appeal in court against the sentencing of the former head of state to 15 months in prison for contempt of court. Last week a judge dismissed Zuma's appeal against arrest on health grounds, and he was sent to prison after giving himself up to the authorities.
• Japan:The capital Tokyo subjected to another state of emergency due to rising COVID-19 infections. The SoE will last until 22 August, encompassing the entirety of the Olympic Games, meaning the event is set to take place behind closed doors.
• United States:Democratic nominee to be the next Mayor of New York City, Eric Adams, travels to Washington, D.C. to meet with President Biden, Attorney General Merrick Garland, and other local leaders from across the US to discuss gun crime and wider criminal justice issues. Adams won the NYC Democratic nomination as a moderate on these issues, vocally denouncing the 'defund the police' message of the Democratic left, putting him on a similar footing to the president on the issue. Comes as New York city experiences a significant spike in crime and violent incidents in the final months of incumbent Mayor Bill de Blasio's final term.
• Israel:Foreign Minister Yair Lapid meets with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels and attends the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting. Lapid's visit seen as a key opportunity to improve relations with the EU and its member states in the first visit of an official from the new government of PM Naftali Bennett to the EU.
• United Kingdom (Northern Ireland): Public holiday for Battle of the Boyne. The 'Glorious Twelfth' as its also known can see sectarian tensions rise amidst marches and the lighting of large bonfires large unionist/loyalist communities and organisations.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 12-18 July.pdf