MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 16-22 May

Executive Summary

All timings subject to change.

Monday 16 May:

• European Union: Member state foreign ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the latest proposed round of sanctions on Russia, including the controversial embargo on Russian oil. The Hungarian government is viewed as the major obstacle to reaching an agreement. No further discussions between member state EU ambassadors were held over the weekend, and a proposed call between Hungarian PM Viktor Orban and senior member state leaders is yet to take place. There remains the option of splitting the sixth round of sanctions into separate packages, one with the less controversial sanctions and one with the oil embargo to be agreed at a later date. There is little expectation that a final deal will be reached on Monday,
• United Kingdom (Northern Ireland): Prime Minister Boris Johnson travels to Northern Ireland for meetings with political leaders. Johnson is attempting to convince unionist politicians to participate in the devolved legislature at Stormont to allow a power-sharing executive (regional government) to be formed. Close focus also on Johnson’s words regarding the Northern Ireland protocol in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, a major issue in UK-EU relations that has come back to the fore with the government in Westminster expected to bring forwards legislation to disapply sections of the protocol.
• EU-US: The second EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) takes place in Paris, France. From the US, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Commerce Department Secretary Gina Raimondo, and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai will be in attendance, while European Commission Executive Vice-Presidents for Trade and Competition, Valdis Dombrovskis and Margarethe Vestager respectively will attend on behalf of the EU. Both sides set to announce an effort to avoid a ‘subsidy race’ over microchip and semiconductor production. Both EU and US seeking to boost production domestically to reduce reliance on China, but do not want to foster competition with one another.
• Russia:President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting of leaders from the nations of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) in Moscow. The meeting is stated as being a celebration of the 30^th anniversary of the Collective Security Treaty, and the 20^th anniversary of the CSTO defence alliance. Putin set to hold talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on the sidelines of the event amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine between Russian and Ukrainian forces.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 16-22 May.pdf