MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 21-27 June

All timings subject to change.

Monday 21 June:

• United States: President Biden and his team are set to review a bipartisan plan for getting the administration's multi-trillion dollar infrastructure bill through the Senate. The proposal has the support of 21 senators, up from 10 originally, but this number will need to expand greatly to at least 60 to bypass the filibuster. Republicans are encouraging Biden to personally shepherd a bipartisan bill through the legislative process, but a growing number of leftist Democrats are pushing for the Senate leadership to approve the deal via a reconciliation process, therefore avoiding the prospect of a GOP filibuster.
• European Union: Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg, with EU foreign ministers due to agree on the imposition of stricter sanctions on Belarus following the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in May in order to arrest an opposition journalist. Nearly 80 individuals close to President Alexander Lukashenko are due to be placed on sanctions lists, while there could also be bans on the import of Belarusian potash fertiliser, among other goods. These moves come after Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanousakaya called for a tighter sanctions regime when speaking to UK MPs.
• Sweden: Prime Minister Stefan Lofven lost a vote of no confidence in the Riksdag (parliament) in a row over rent controls being removed from new-build housing. With the socialist Left Party withdrawing its support from the confidence-and-supply agreement with Lofven's Social Democrats and voting with the opposition parties of the right, the government was ousted by a margin of 181 votes to 109, with 51 abstentions.
• Russia: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Secretary-General Helga Maria Schmid in Moscow. The main topic of interest in conversation is likely to be Ukraine, with the OSCE tasked with assisting Minsk Agreement parties (Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany) with implementing the protocols regarding the political and military situation in the Donbass.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 21-27 June.pdf