MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 28 Jun-4 Jul

All timings subject to change.

Monday 28 June:

• United States: House of Representatives to vote this week on the establishment of a select committee to investigate the 6 January Capitol storming. The Democrat-led House initiative comes after Senate Republicans blocked the prospect of a bipartisan commission investigating the riot. A select committee would allow House Democratic leadership to direct the rules of any investigation as well as the composition of the committee, its timeline, and the powers and scope the committee will have. Following this the House. House also set to vote on issues including repealing the 2002 Iraq War authorisation and removing statues of Confederates or those that did not fight to end slavery from the Capitol. House then goes on a three-week 4 July recess.
• G20: A three-day meeting of G20 foreign ministers begins in Matera, Italy. The summit is seen as a precursor to the G20 heads of government/state meeting due to take place in Rome in October. Major topics of conversation likely to be containing the pandemic and encouraging an economic recovery, global trade issues, and green initiatives. Some ministers to attend the meeting virtually. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi are not expected to have a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit according to a US official.
• United Kingdom: The government is expected to announce whether the planned 'Freedom Day' in England, where all COVID-19 restrictions would end, can be brought forward by two weeks from 19 July to 5 July. Widespread expectation is that the day will stay as 19 July as new caseloads remain high in England due to the spread of the Delta variant. PM Boris Johnson and/or new Health Secretary Sajid Javid expected to announce the government's decision.
• European Union:Agriculture and Fisheries Council meeting takes place. Continues to 29 June. Major topic of conversation will be plan agreed last week to reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, the EU's largest single expenditure and often a cause of major political ructions between member states. This is the first meeting following trilogue talks between the European Council, Commission, and Parliament came to a political agreement last week. The plan sees EUR270bn of funding to be disbursed up until 2027.
• US-Israel: Outgoing Israeli President Reuven Rivlin travels to the White House to meet US President Joe Biden for the first time since the latter's inauguration. The two are expected to discuss Israeli defence requirements in the context of US support, as well as the future of the Iran nuclear deal.
• US-Italy: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to meet with Italian counterpart Luigi di Maio in Rome to attend a meeting on the future of Syria and countering the Islamic State. Other foreign ministers also in attendance. Blinken to also meet Pope Francis at the Vatican.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 28 Jun-4 Jul.pdf