MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Jan 11-17

Monday 11 January:

• United States: Congressional Democrats set to embark on another attempt to force President Donald Trump from office, with articles of impeachment likely to be introduced in the House of Representatives in the (seemingly likely) scenario that senior administration officials do not seek to invoke the 25^th Amendment in order to have Trump removed from office on grounds of incapacitations. With President Elect Biden's inauguration due to take place on 20 January, the process will have to be rapid if Trump is to be removed from office before then.
• European Union: Various committees within the European Parliament begin debates on the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. The TCA was provisionally applied by the Council in order to avoid the UK leaving the single market and customs union on 31 December with no deal in place. However, the TCA will still need to be ratified by the Parliament before it becomes a legally binding text.
• United Kingdom:Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak to deliver a statement to the House of Commons on the government's economic response to the escalation in COVID-19 cases in the UK and the new nationwide lockdown. Sunak expected to confirm continuation of government support schemes for individuals and businesses forced to close. Speaks at around 1530GMT (1030ET, 1630CET).
• Global:French President Emmanuel Macron hosts a virtual summit of global leaders intended to lay the groundwork for UN biodiversity talks that were delayed due to the pandemic. Macron will speak alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, UK PM Boris Johnson, and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, among others.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Jan 11-17.pdf