MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Oct 19-25

All timings subject to change.

Monday 19 October:

• UK-EU: Talks regarding the prospect of a UK-EU FTA after the end of the Brexit transition period continue today, with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier talking to his UK counterpart Lord Frost via videolink. Meanwhile, UK Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove will speak to European Commission Vice-President for Interinstitutional Relations Maros Sefcovic as part of the Joint Committee on the implementation of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
• OPEC: Opec+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee takes place today virtually. Rising pressures on oil demand and an increase in production in Libya set to be discussed. Convenes at 1330CET (1230BST, 0730ET). The JMMC meeting involves only a select few OPEC+ members, and as such major decisions on whether to ease output cuts from 7.7m/bbd to 5.8m/bbd are likely to be delayed to the next full OPEC+ meeting on November 30.
• United States: President Trump to speak at three 'Make America Great Again' election rallies in the swing state of Arizona, at 1400, 1500, and 1700ET.
• European Union: Latest plenary session of the European Parliament begins. The event will take place virtually, with Brussels under severe lockdown restrictions as COVID-19 cases surge in the city and travel to Strasbourg (as initially scheduled) advised against by health experts. Talks this week to focus on EU actions with regards to Belarus, regulation of AI, and EU agricultural policy.
• Russia: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to hold talks with Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejcinovic Buric. The Council of Europe (not related to the European Council) is an intergovernmental human rights organisation, and despite a difficult relationship with the Kremlin in recent years, is set to talk to Lavrov about the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the situation in Belarus.

Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Oct 19-25.pdf