MNI POLITICAL RISK - Biden Passes Torch To Harris At DNC

Executive Summary:

• President Joe Biden will today deliver the keynote address on day one of the Democratic National Convention. Biden is expected to argue that a Trump presidency would threaten US democracy and tout the successes of his term in office before departing Chicago, allowing Vice President Kamala Harris to take centre stage.
• Historical data suggests Harris may get a polling bump of around 2-3% during the convention. However, a 'convention polling boost' may have already been priced in amid the momentum surge that followed her ascent to the top of the ticket.
• On Friday, Harris gave her first major policy speech, emphasising a new focus on the middle class and outlining a set of populist proposals that have received tepid reviews from economists.
• Trump will counter-programme with DNC with a series of events in swing states. Today, he will speak on the economy in York, Pennsylvania where he is likely to continue a strategy linking Harris with Biden's unpopular economic policies.
• Several new polls show Harris retaining or extending her lead over Trump in national polling. Although Harris has recovered slightly, voters continue to trust Trump more on the economy.
• Democrats may have been given another boost in the Washington State primaries, an unusual primary structure that can offer clues about the underlying political environment.
• White House officials say negotiators hope to reconvene in Cairo this week to conclude a Gaza ceasefire deal.
• Poll of the Day: Republicans are favoured to win 51 Senate seats in November.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily190824.pdf