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MNI POLITICAL RISK - Uncertainty Swirls Around Biden

US
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  • Two key dynamics have emerged as the dust settles on President Biden’s weak presidential debate performance. Firstly, Biden’s team have rallied behind the president and are, at least publicly, committed to Biden’s re-election. Secondly, Biden has almost entirely lost the support of the Democrat-leaning press and much of the elite Democrat donor class. We have full analysis of the reaction and Biden's strategy for managing the fallout of the debate inside.
  • 46% of registered Democrats believe that Biden should not be running for President, up from 36% prior to the debate. Of those Democrats, 86% cite Biden’s age as the top reason he shouldn’t run, according to one post-debate survey.
  • Prediction markets are aligned in a negative assessment of Biden’s chances of re-election. ElectionBettingOdds, Polymarket, and Smarkets all show Biden with roughly a 20% implied probability of winning the election.
  • 10:00 ET 15:00 BST: The Supreme Court is expected to rule today on whether former President Donald Trump is immune from prosecution for acts committed whilst in office. The prevailing view is that Trump is unlikely to see the inside of a courtroom in either federal case against him before the presidential election on November 5, regardless of the ruling.
  • Poll of the Day: The 538 presidential election model still forecasts a slight Biden victory. Watch this space to see if a polling recalibration takes place as post-debate surveys trickle in.
Full article: US Daily Brief
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  • Two key dynamics have emerged as the dust settles on President Biden’s weak presidential debate performance. Firstly, Biden’s team have rallied behind the president and are, at least publicly, committed to Biden’s re-election. Secondly, Biden has almost entirely lost the support of the Democrat-leaning press and much of the elite Democrat donor class. We have full analysis of the reaction and Biden's strategy for managing the fallout of the debate inside.
  • 46% of registered Democrats believe that Biden should not be running for President, up from 36% prior to the debate. Of those Democrats, 86% cite Biden’s age as the top reason he shouldn’t run, according to one post-debate survey.
  • Prediction markets are aligned in a negative assessment of Biden’s chances of re-election. ElectionBettingOdds, Polymarket, and Smarkets all show Biden with roughly a 20% implied probability of winning the election.
  • 10:00 ET 15:00 BST: The Supreme Court is expected to rule today on whether former President Donald Trump is immune from prosecution for acts committed whilst in office. The prevailing view is that Trump is unlikely to see the inside of a courtroom in either federal case against him before the presidential election on November 5, regardless of the ruling.
  • Poll of the Day: The 538 presidential election model still forecasts a slight Biden victory. Watch this space to see if a polling recalibration takes place as post-debate surveys trickle in.
Full article: US Daily Brief