June 14, 2024 14:11 GMT
MNI POLITICAL RISK – US Elections Weekly: Comparing Models
Weekly snapshot of the US elections.
Executive Summary:
The Economist and 538 released their 2024 presidential election models this week. The 538 model forecasts a 'toss-up' but The Economist gives Trump a relatively strong lead. Inside we provide a summary of what they show and analysis of how methodologies can throw up different forecasts.
- If Democrats are going to retain the Senate, they will likely need to at least two split-ticket wins. New polling data from Ohio shows that Democrats may outperform Biden in key races.
- A special election in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District delivered a major upside surprise for Democrats that has echoes of a string of special elections in 2022 which foreshadowed a Democratic Party overperformance at the 2022 midterm elections.
- Also inside: A roundup of polling and prediction market data from the week.
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