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MNI Projects CPI to Rise to +6.38% in Small Upside Surprise

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

We have now received state data that equates to 89.1% weighting of the national German CPI print (due at 1300 BST / 1400 CET).

  • MNI calculations estimate that CPI rose by +0.26% m/m, and by +6.38% y/y in June. This is based on the published index values for available state data. This implies a 0.3pp acceleration on the annualised figure from +6.1% y/y in May. (German headline inflation peaked in October/November peak at +8.8% y/y.)
  • For m/m and y/y, our estimate is around 0.1pp above the current Bloomberg consensus forecast.
  • Today's state data also points towards a possible half-point uptick in core CPI for Germany. Core CPI data excluding both energy and food is only available for six states which account for 50% of the headline index. These saw core CPI steady, to up to +0.7pp on the headline annualised prints, with a weighted average increase of +0.47pp.
  • Note: this is in relation to the national CPI print - not the HICP print (which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets). The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.


Y/YJune (reported)May (reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia6.2%5.7%0.5%
Hesse6.1%5.9%0.2%
Bavaria6.2%6.1%0.1%
Brandenburg6.7%6.3%0.4%
Baden Wuert.6.9%6.6%0.3%
Berlin5.9%6.0%-0.1%
Saxony6.8%6.5%-0.2%
Rhineland-Palatinate6.4%6.1%0.3%
Lower Saxony6.6%6.4%0.2%
Saarland6.0%5.8%0.2%
Saxony-Anhalt6.5%6.4%0.1%
Weighted average: 6.38%for 89.1%
M/MJune (reported)May (reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia0.3%-0.2%0.5%
Hesse0.2%0.0%0.2%
Bavaria0.2%-0.1%0.3%
Brandenburg0.3%0.1%0.2%
Baden Wuert.0.3%0.1%0.2%
Berlin0.1%-0.3%0.4%
Saxony 0.3%-0.3%0.6%
Rhineland-Palatinate0.2%0.0%0.2%
Lower Saxony0.3%-0.1%0.4%
Saarland0.2%0.1%0.1%
Saxony-Anhalt0.3%0.2%0.1%
Weighted average: 0.26%for 89.1%
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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