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MNI RBA Preview - April 2023: Pause, Q1 CPI To Determine May

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The April 4 RBA meeting is going to be particularly close but it is likely rates will be kept at 3.6% as the Board watches and waits for more information on domestic and global developments. But economists are split and many expect another 25bp hike. However, given that rates are now in restrictive territory, the Board has the luxury to pause in April and reassess at the May meeting.
  • If there is an April pause, the meeting guidance is likely to keep the Board’s options open given inflation remains elevated and is not expected to reach the top of the target band until mid-2025. Thus the May meeting remains firmly in play. Importantly, the RBA's updated forecasts will be available. Also, Q1 CPI prints on April 26 and includes important underlying and domestically-driven components.

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RBA Preview - April 2023.pdf

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